14/09/2026 – Daily Reports
Dollar Rises as Yen Holds Near 7-Month High
- The dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.22 as markets priced an 86% chance of a Fed rate hike this week.
- U.S. 2-year yields remain elevated near 4.61%, while rising oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns.
- Brent climbed nearly 3% to $107.60 amid escalating Middle East tensions and supply risks.
- USD/JPY is around 154.03 after the yen hit a seven-month high of 152.89 last week.
- Markets are almost fully pricing a 25 bps BOJ hike, with guidance on further hikes likely to determine the yen’s next move.
What’s Next?
Fed and BOJ decisions will be key for USD/JPY. A hawkish BOJ could push the pair below 153, while a dovish message may trigger a rebound toward 157–160.
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- Oil is once again the main market driver. New Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on vessels in the Gulf have intensified supply concerns. Brent climbed above $107, while higher energy prices are increasing inflation and stagflation risks.
- Fed expectations are the key focus this week. Following stronger-than-expected U.S. CPI data last week, markets are now pricing around an 86.5% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike at Wednesday’s meeting. Persistently high oil prices are making the Fed’s inflation fight more difficult.
- Gold remains under pressure from higher oil prices and rising rate-hike expectations. Spot gold is around $4,334, with higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar limiting upside. However, geopolitical risks continue to provide safe-haven support.
- Asian equities are under pressure as investors assess higher oil prices and the upcoming Fed and BOJ meetings. Markets will closely watch the Fed decision, oil prices, Treasury yields and Middle East developments this week.
Global Market Briefing — 14 September 2026
- Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.3% and S&P 500 futures dropped 0.5% on Monday as a push among leading artificial-intelligence companies to slow development of advanced models weighed on technology shares. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay on Saturday urging AI firms to slow improvements to their most advanced models, a proposal publicly backed by Sam Altman and Elon Musk, while Altman said an IPO now would be ill-advised, pushing OpenAI’s listing to at least 2027. Markets are pricing roughly an 86% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday.
- Frankfurt’s DAX 40 closed 0.8% higher at 25,569 on Friday, led by Infineon (+4.8%), Siemens (+2.7%) and Deutsche Telekom (+2.6%), while BASF, Rheinmetall and Henkel lagged; the index still ended the week 1.9% lower. Commerzbank gained 1.5% after the German government set conditions for UniCredit’s proposed takeover. The European Central Bank delivered a quarter-point rate increase last Thursday, with President Lagarde flagging upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.
- The Nikkei 225 fell 1.7% on Monday to below 63,000, a six-week low, pressured by weaker US futures, AI-related uncertainty and higher crude prices. Tech and AI names led declines, including SoftBank Group (-12%), Kioxia (-8.6%), Taiyo Yuden (-8.3%) and Advantest (-4.5%). Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are expected to raise rates this week.
- Spot gold slipped 0.5% to $4,20 an ounce, following a third consecutive weekly decline. Higher oil prices revived inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of a Fed hike. US CPI held at 3.4% in August, with monthly prices up 0.4%.
- Brent November futures rose as much as 3.7% before trading around $108,47 after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline, its main route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, following multiple attacks in the Riyadh and Madinah regions; no restart date has been given. The move follows a rally of almost 9% last week. Separately, Oman postponed Monday’s GCC-Iran meeting on a Strait of Hormuz shipping proposal.
