14/09/2026 – Daily Reports
Dollar Rises as Yen Holds Near 7-Month High
- The dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.22 as markets priced an 86% chance of a Fed rate hike this week.
- U.S. 2-year yields remain elevated near 4.61%, while rising oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns.
- Brent climbed nearly 3% to $107.60 amid escalating Middle East tensions and supply risks.
- USD/JPY is around 154.03 after the yen hit a seven-month high of 152.89 last week.
- Markets are almost fully pricing a 25 bps BOJ hike, with guidance on further hikes likely to determine the yen’s next move.
What’s Next?
Fed and BOJ decisions will be key for USD/JPY. A hawkish BOJ could push the pair below 153, while a dovish message may trigger a rebound toward 157–160.
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- Oil is once again the main market driver. New Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Iranian attacks on vessels in the Gulf have intensified supply concerns. Brent climbed above $107, while higher energy prices are increasing inflation and stagflation risks.
- Fed expectations are the key focus this week. Following stronger-than-expected U.S. CPI data last week, markets are now pricing around an 86.5% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike at Wednesday’s meeting. Persistently high oil prices are making the Fed’s inflation fight more difficult.
- Gold remains under pressure from higher oil prices and rising rate-hike expectations. Spot gold is around $4,334, with higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar limiting upside. However, geopolitical risks continue to provide safe-haven support.
- Asian equities are under pressure as investors assess higher oil prices and the upcoming Fed and BOJ meetings. Markets will closely watch the Fed decision, oil prices, Treasury yields and Middle East developments this week.
