Global risk appetite remains strong but fragile as investors assess the latest technology rally while preparing for the most important event of the day: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.

US equities ended August 27 on a positive note, led by technology stocks. The Nasdaq gained 1.36%, the S&P 500 rose 0.68%, and the Dow Jones advanced 0.41%.

The main driver was renewed optimism around Nvidia and artificial intelligence investment. However, with US Treasury yields remaining elevated and oil prices recovering, markets are entering the session with several competing forces.

The key themes for August 28 are:

• Jackson Hole and Fed policy expectations
• US Treasury yields
• Brent crude oil and inflation risks
• Nvidia-led technology momentum
• Gold and silver
• Middle East developments

1. US Equities: Technology Momentum Remains Strong

US equity markets recorded another positive session on August 27, with technology stocks leading the gains.

Nvidia remained one of the main catalysts after strong long-term revenue expectations helped restore confidence in the artificial intelligence investment theme.

The company’s projection of approximately 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028 supported renewed inflows into AI-related stocks.

Technology momentum may therefore continue, although some short-term profit-taking would be normal after the latest rally.

The main scenarios for US equities are closely tied to the Fed.

Dovish Fed Scenario

A dovish message from Warsh could:

• Support Nasdaq and technology stocks
• Push Treasury yields lower
• Weaken the US dollar
• Support precious metals

Hawkish Fed Scenario

A more hawkish message could:

• Push Treasury yields higher
• Strengthen the dollar
• Pressure Nasdaq
• Trigger volatility across risk assets

Balanced Fed Scenario

A relatively neutral speech could initially create volatility, followed by renewed attention on technology fundamentals.

2. Jackson Hole: The Most Important Event of the Day

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech is clearly the main market event on August 28.

Investors will be looking for clues on:

• The Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation
• The outlook for September interest rates
• The balance between employment and inflation risks
• The Fed’s view of elevated long-term Treasury yields

Energy prices continue to complicate the inflation outlook, while slowing growth and employment indicators create pressure in the opposite direction.

The US 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.67% on August 27, with higher oil prices and concerns over US government debt keeping long-term borrowing costs elevated.

Potential Market Reaction

The reaction of the US 10-year yield may ultimately be more important than the speech itself.

3. Oil: The Main Inflation Risk

Oil remains one of the most important macroeconomic risks.

Brent crude rose approximately 1.15% on August 27 to around $88.85, as the lack of concrete progress regarding the Strait of Hormuz and continued US-Iran tensions kept the geopolitical risk premium elevated.

The psychological $90 level remains particularly important.

Brent Scenarios

Above $88: Positive short-term structure

Above $90: Risk of another upward move

$85–88: Consolidation zone

Below $85: More supportive for the global inflation outlook

A sustained move above $90 could increase pressure on:

• Airlines
• Transportation companies
• Consumer sectors

At the same time, energy companies could benefit.

Oil therefore remains directly connected to the Fed narrative:

Oil ↑ → Inflation risk ↑ → Treasury yields ↑ → Fed flexibility ↓

4. Gold: $4,600 Remains the Critical Level

Gold remains one of the most closely watched markets ahead of Jackson Hole.

The metal traded around $4,610 per ounce on August 27.

Several factors continue to support gold:

• Concerns over US government debt
• A relatively weak dollar
• Geopolitical uncertainty
• Central-bank demand

However, a hawkish Fed and rising Treasury yields remain the main downside risks.

Key Gold Levels

As long as gold remains above $4,600, the underlying trend remains constructive.

Potential upside levels:

• $4,650
• $4,700
• $4,750

A move below $4,600 could increase the probability of a correction toward:

• $4,570
• $4,530

The Jackson Hole message will therefore be particularly important for precious metals.

Dovish Fed → Positive for gold

Hawkish Fed → Higher yields and dollar strength could pressure gold

5. Silver: Higher Potential, Higher Risk

Silver remains stronger but more volatile than gold.

The metal traded around $69.43 on August 27 and its annual gain exceeded 77%.

Silver continues to benefit from several themes:

• Precious-metal demand
• Industrial usage
• Solar-energy investment
• Electronics
• Electric vehicles

Key Silver Levels

Above $68–69: Positive

Above $70: Stronger momentum

If $70 is sustainably broken:

$72 → $75 becomes the next potential target area.

However, the rapid advance also increases the risk of aggressive short-term profit-taking.

In relative terms:

Gold = Lower-risk precious-metal exposure

Silver = Higher upside potential / Higher volatility

6. US Dollar: Jackson Hole Will Determine Direction

The US dollar has recently remained relatively weak.

The Dollar Index declined toward approximately 98.55, making the Fed’s message increasingly important.

The relationship remains straightforward:

Dovish Fed → Dollar lower

Hawkish Fed → Dollar higher

Dollar movements will also have direct implications for:

• Gold
• Emerging-market currencies
• Emerging-market equities
• Industrial metals

7. Europe: Lagging Behind the US

European equities did not fully participate in the US technology rally.

The STOXX 600 declined approximately 0.74%, while France’s CAC 40 fell around 1.8%.

Political uncertainty in France is adding another layer of pressure.

Europe therefore currently appears weaker than the United States.

Key areas to monitor include:

• Banking
• Automotive stocks
• Consumer sectors
• Energy costs

Higher energy prices remain an especially important risk for the European economic outlook.

8. Asia: Technology Interest Returns

Asian technology and semiconductor stocks have begun attracting stronger demand again.

South Korea’s KOSPI has shown positive momentum, reflecting renewed optimism toward technology-related companies.

However, the main risks for Asian markets remain the same:

Oil + US Treasury yields + Fed

Japan is also particularly sensitive to:

• US interest rates
• Yen movements
• Global semiconductor sentiment

Global Market Outlook — August 28

Main Scenario for August 28

Morning / Early Session

Markets are likely to remain:

Cautiously positive but volatile

ahead of the Fed speech.

US Market Open

Nvidia-related technology momentum could continue supporting US equities.

After Jackson Hole

The market’s real directional move is likely to emerge.

Investors should closely monitor four markets simultaneously:

Nasdaq + Gold + US Dollar + US 10-Year Treasury Yield

A particularly negative combination would be:

Hawkish Fed + US 10Y above 4.70% + Brent above $90

Such a scenario would represent a more challenging environment for global risk assets.

Overall, the main story on August 28 is not oil itself.

The Fed remains the central driver, while oil is the key factor complicating the inflation outlook.

Overseas Markets — Commodities Analysis

Commodity markets remain broadly constructive, but volatility is elevated.

The central relationship is increasingly:

Oil → Inflation → Fed → Dollar → Precious Metals

Brent remains supported by unresolved geopolitical risks, while gold and silver continue to react to Fed expectations and Treasury yields.

The report’s overall commodity outlook remains positive but highly volatile.

1. Oil: Geopolitical Headlines Remain the Main Driver

The Strait of Hormuz remains the most important issue for oil markets.

Talks between Iran and Oman regarding a gradual reopening of the Strait and mine-clearing efforts had previously reduced the geopolitical risk premium.

Brent fell toward $86 on August 26 before rebounding to approximately $88.85 on August 27.

This rebound indicates that the market is still not fully pricing a complete normalization of the Strait.

August 28 Brent Scenario

The main potential progression is:

$86 → $89 → $92

A sustained break above $90 could reopen:

$92 → $95

On the downside, concrete progress in Iran-Oman negotiations could produce a correction toward:

$86 → $83 → $80

Oil is currently behaving less like a traditional supply-demand market and more like a geopolitical headline market.

WTI

$80: Important support

$83–85: Resistance zone

2. Natural Gas: Weather Supports Prices

Natural gas is being driven primarily by:

• Weather conditions
• Electricity demand
• Inventory levels

Continued hot-weather forecasts in the United States are supporting demand from electricity generation.

Short-Term Outlook

Positive

As long as hot weather persists, pullbacks may attract buyers.

However, normalization in weather forecasts could trigger rapid profit-taking.

3. Gold: The $4,600–4,700 Zone Is Critical

Gold remains caught between two competing macro forces.

Negative

Persistent inflation may delay Fed easing.

Positive

• Geopolitical uncertainty
• Dollar weakness
• Central-bank demand

As long as gold remains above $4,600, the broader trend remains positive.

Potential upside:

$4,650 → $4,700 → $4,750

Potential downside below $4,600:

$4,570 → $4,530

Volatility could increase significantly around the $4,600–4,700 region.

4. Silver: Strong Trend, Elevated Volatility

Silver continues to offer greater upside potential than gold but with higher risk.

A sustained move above $70 could open the way toward:

$72 → $75

However, after the sharp recent rally, the probability of profit-taking has increased.

Outlook: Positive / High volatility

5. Copper: Medium-Term Outlook Remains Positive

Copper continues to benefit from structural themes including:

• AI investment
• Electricity-grid infrastructure
• Data centers
• Chinese stimulus expectations
• Supply constraints

Negative factors include:

• Higher US interest rates
• A stronger dollar
• Weak Chinese domestic demand
• Global growth concerns

The medium-term outlook remains positive, although confirmation from Chinese demand remains important.

6. Platinum and Palladium

Platinum

Platinum remains:

Neutral / Potential for rebound

High interest rates continue to limit upside momentum, although supply-side constraints could restrict deeper declines.

Palladium

Palladium remains relatively weaker.

Uncertainty surrounding automotive demand makes it more vulnerable than platinum.

For August 28:

Platinum > Palladium

7. Aluminium

Aluminium remains under pressure from Chinese supply.

Strong Chinese exports and weak domestic demand are increasing the amount of metal available to international markets.

As a result:

Copper remains stronger

while

Aluminium remains weaker

Short-Term Outlook: Negative

8. Wheat

Black Sea geopolitical risk has returned as an important market driver.

Russia-Ukraine tensions and concerns surrounding export security are adding a risk premium to wheat.

The commodity recently approached its highest levels in around three years.

Outlook: Positive

However, elevated prices also increase the probability of profit-taking.

9. Corn

Expectations of tighter supply remain supportive.

However, short-term profit-taking is visible after the recent rally.

Medium-Term Outlook: Positive

Short-Term Risk: Correction

10. Soybeans

Optimism surrounding Chinese demand remains supportive.

However, profit-taking has begun after the recent advance.

The market can currently be characterized as:

Correction within a broader upward trend

11. Coffee

Tightening supply conditions previously supported coffee prices.

However, Brazil’s storage capacity approaching full utilization and profit-taking following the recent rally could create:

Short-term consolidation / correction

A new strong upward move would likely require further deterioration in supply conditions.

12. Cocoa

Cocoa continues to balance two competing factors:

El Niño-related supply risk

versus

Expectations for recovering production

The medium-term outlook remains positive, although volatility is expected to stay high.

13. Cotton

Deteriorating global supply conditions continue to support cotton.

Outlook: Positive

However, weaker global growth or softer textile demand could limit the upside.

14. Sugar

Sugar remains sensitive to oil prices.

Higher oil prices can improve the economics of ethanol production, which may affect sugar availability.

For now:

Outlook: Neutral / Slightly Positive

Commodity Outlook — August 28

Five Key Commodity Themes

The most important commodity themes for August 28 are:

1. Strait of Hormuz — Oil, natural gas and inflation
2. Jackson Hole / Fed — Gold, silver, copper and the dollar
3. Iran–Oman Talks — Oil geopolitical premium
4. Chinese Demand — Copper, aluminium and soybeans
5. Black Sea Geopolitics — Wheat and corn

Commodity Strength Ranking

Strongest

1. Silver
2. Gold
3. Brent Crude
4. Copper
5. Wheat
6. Natural Gas
7. Cocoa
8. Corn
9. Cotton
10. Coffee

Weaker Group

• Aluminium
• Palladium
• Platinum

Key Takeaway

The most important relationship in commodity markets today is:

Oil → Inflation → Fed → Dollar → Precious Metals

Upside risk in oil remains due to the Strait of Hormuz, while gold above $4,600 and silver around $69–70 remain the key technical areas in precious metals.

At the same time, Nvidia’s strong projections and improving global technology sentiment could provide medium-term support to industrial metals such as copper.

Overall:

Commodity Outlook: Positive, but with high volatility.