Global markets are entering a critical trading session as investors focus on falling oil prices, easing US Treasury yields, Nvidia earnings and upcoming US inflation data.

Wall Street ended the previous session on a positive note, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones gaining 0.3%, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.7%.

The decline in oil prices and the easing in long-term Treasury yields have provided some relief to risk assets, particularly technology stocks. However, Nvidia’s earnings announcement and the upcoming PCE inflation data could determine whether this improvement in sentiment can continue.

1. Oil: Geopolitical Risk Premium Is Easing

One of the most important developments today is the possibility of progress in Iran–Oman talks regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran and Oman are reportedly discussing a temporary maritime corridor and mine-clearing framework that could facilitate vessel traffic through the Strait.

Although no permanent agreement has been reached, the talks have reduced concerns about an immediate supply disruption.

As a result:

• Brent has fallen toward the $86–87 region
• WTI is trading around $81
• Brent declined approximately 3.6% in the previous session

The decline in oil prices is important not only for energy markets but also for the broader global macro outlook.

The transmission mechanism is relatively straightforward:

Oil ↓ → Inflation expectations ↓ → Treasury yields ↓ → Fed policy flexibility ↑ → Support for technology stocks

For this reason, lower oil prices are currently one of the strongest supportive factors for global risk appetite.

However, the risk of another sharp move higher has not completely disappeared, as a permanent agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz has yet to be reached.

2. US Treasury Yields: Providing Relief to Markets

Lower oil prices have also contributed to a more constructive environment in the US Treasury market.

The US 10-year Treasury yield has declined toward 4.63%, after approaching approximately 4.74% last week.

The key relationship is:

Oil ↓ → Inflation pressure ↓ → Long-term yields ↓ → Valuation pressure on equities ↓

High-multiple technology and artificial intelligence stocks are among the main beneficiaries of this development.

However, structural pressure on long-term Treasury yields remains.

The United States continues to face:

• High public debt,
• A large fiscal deficit,
• Elevated long-term financing requirements.

Therefore, the latest decline in yields should currently be viewed more as a relief move rather than confirmation of a permanent trend reversal.

3. Nvidia: The Most Important Event of the Day

Nvidia is scheduled to report earnings after the US market close.

This is no longer an ordinary corporate earnings announcement.

Nvidia’s results influence a much broader chain:

Nvidia → AI investment → Microsoft / Google / Amazon / Meta data centers → Semiconductors → Nasdaq → S&P 500

Market expectations point to approximately:

• $92.2 billion in fiscal second-quarter revenue
• $2.09 adjusted EPS
• Around $104.2 billion in revenue expectations for the October quarter

However, investors should not focus solely on the headline earnings numbers.

Three areas will be particularly important.

Blackwell Demand

Stronger-than-expected demand for Blackwell products would indicate that global AI investment remains robust.

Forward Guidance

Guidance above the roughly $104 billion market expectation for the next quarter could provide significant support to the Nasdaq and semiconductor sector.

China and Competition

Investors will also closely monitor:

• Nvidia’s China sales,
• Custom-designed AI chips,
• Competitive pressure,
• Potential changes in Nvidia’s market share.

The options market is pricing an approximately 6% two-way move following the earnings announcement, indicating the potential for significant volatility.

Nvidia Scenarios

Strong earnings + strong guidance → Nasdaq and S&P 500 higher

Strong earnings + weak guidance → Initial positive reaction followed by selling pressure

Earnings in line with expectations → Risk of a “priced-in” sell-off

Weak earnings → Significant pressure on technology and semiconductor stocks

For markets, Nvidia’s forward-looking message may therefore be more important than the headline earnings figure itself.

US Data

Markets are also preparing for upcoming US PCE inflation and growth data.

The Fed-related equation remains simple:

Lower PCE

Rate-cut expectations ↑ → Treasury yields ↓ → Nasdaq ↑

Higher PCE

Expectations of delayed Fed easing ↑ → Treasury yields ↑ → Nasdaq ↓

The close timing of Nvidia earnings and PCE inflation data increases the probability of significant short-term market volatility.

Technology investors therefore face both an earnings catalyst and a macroeconomic catalyst at almost the same time.

5. US Dollar: Recovering but No Strong Trend Yet

The US Dollar Index has attempted to recover and recently tested its highest levels since August 19.

However, the move currently appears more like a technical rebound than the beginning of a strong and sustainable bullish trend.

Several factors continue to influence the dollar:

• Fed rate expectations,
• The US budget deficit,
• Long-term Treasury yields,
• Jackson Hole expectations,
• PCE inflation.

For now, the dollar outlook can be described as:

Neutral / Slightly Positive

6. Gold: Strong Trend Remains Intact

Gold remains close to the $4,700 region and near its highest levels of the past 15 weeks.

An important feature of the current market environment is that gold has remained resilient despite the recent recovery in the US dollar.

This suggests that underlying demand remains strong.

Gold continues to benefit from:

• Concerns over US fiscal conditions,
• Fed rate-cut expectations,
• Geopolitical uncertainty,
• Central-bank demand,
• Lower Treasury yields.

A softer PCE inflation reading could provide another catalyst for the metal.

Sustained trading above $4,700 could also bring the psychological $5,000 level back into focus.

The main forces currently supporting gold are broader than geopolitics alone.

7. Asian Markets: Waiting for Nvidia

Asian investors remain cautious ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has moved modestly higher, while Japan and South Korea have shown relatively limited moves.

The lack of a strong directional trend should not necessarily be interpreted as broad risk aversion.

Instead, it appears to reflect position reduction and a wait-and-see approach ahead of Nvidia’s results.

Nvidia has the potential to influence:

US technology stocks → Asian semiconductor companies → Global technology sentiment

As a result, Asian markets could experience a stronger reaction after Nvidia provides more clarity on the outlook for AI investment.

8. China: Iran Sanctions Remain Important

The expansion of US sanctions related to Iran also has implications for China.

China opposes measures that could target Chinese companies doing business with Iran.

However, the fact that recent US measures have not directly targeted major Chinese financial institutions has strengthened the view that Washington may be trying to avoid a more aggressive escalation with Beijing.

For markets, this currently points toward a controlled geopolitical-risk environment rather than a full escalation.

9. Europe: Showing Relative Strength

European markets currently appear relatively stronger.

Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index increased from 86.7 to 88.8, exceeding expectations of 87.2.

In addition, second-quarter German economic growth was revised to 0.3%, suggesting that the economy is recovering somewhat more strongly than previously estimated.

This is supportive for:

• DAX,
• Euro Stoxx,
• German banks,
• German industrial companies.

However, energy prices remain an important risk for the European economy.

For the DAX, the report’s main scenario remains constructive while the index stays above 26,100.

A break above the 26,300–26,400 region could strengthen the possibility of another move toward record territory.

10. Japan: Nikkei Strong but Selective

The Nikkei has reached approximately 65,729, with technology and electronics-related companies such as Furukawa Electric, Fujikura and Ibiden providing support.

This indicates that the technology theme in Asia remains intact.

However, the semiconductor rally remains vulnerable ahead of Nvidia’s results.

Positive Nvidia Results

Japanese technology and semiconductor stocks could receive significant support.

Negative Nvidia Results

The semiconductor selling previously seen in the US could spread to Asian markets.

The Japanese equity outlook therefore remains positive but highly dependent on global technology sentiment.

11. Bitcoin: Alternative Assets Remain in Focus

Bitcoin has moved above $80,000 after gaining approximately 30% in around 10 days.

One particularly interesting market development is that:

Gold + Bitcoin are rising simultaneously.

This may indicate that some investors are increasingly looking toward alternative assets amid concerns surrounding:

• Fiat currencies,
• Government debt,
• Fiscal policy.

However, Bitcoin’s advance has been extremely rapid, increasing the risk of short-term profit-taking.

The longer-term momentum remains strong, but near-term volatility should be expected.

Global Market Outlook — 26 August 2026

Today’s Most Important Market Equation

The current market environment can be summarized as:

Progress in Strait of Hormuz diplomacy

↓

Oil prices decline

↓

Inflation pressure eases

↓

US Treasury yields fall

↓

Technology valuations receive support

↓

But markets wait for Nvidia earnings

↓

Nasdaq direction becomes clearer after the results

This explains why markets are currently in a wait-and-see mode despite the improvement in general risk sentiment.

Main Scenario for August 26

First Half of the Session

Sideways / Cautiously Positive

Lower oil prices and easing Treasury yields support sentiment, while investors avoid taking aggressive positions ahead of Nvidia.

US Market Open

Higher Volatility

Technology stocks could become increasingly sensitive to expectations surrounding Nvidia’s results.

After Nvidia Earnings

The market’s main direction is likely to become clearer.

Positive Scenario

Strong Nvidia + PCE near or below expectations + Brent remains around $85–87

Potential outcome:

• Technology stocks strengthen,
• Nasdaq rises,
• Treasury yields remain contained,
• Broader risk appetite improves.

Mixed Scenario

Strong Nvidia + Higher PCE

Potential outcome:

• Initial equity rally,
• Followed by profit-taking as Treasury yields rise.

Downside-Risk Scenario

Nvidia disappoints + Oil rebounds + US Treasury yields move back above 4.7%

This combination would create the most challenging setup for technology and risk assets.

Five Key Themes to Watch

The five most important market themes are:

1. Nvidia Earnings
2. US July PCE Inflation
3. US 10-Year and 30-Year Treasury Yields
4. Kevin Warsh / Jackson Hole Expectations
5. Iran Sanctions and Oil Prices

Nvidia’s results could influence not only Nvidia itself, but also:

• Nasdaq,
• S&P 500,
• Semiconductor stocks,
• Japanese technology equities,
• Global AI-related companies.

August 26 should therefore be viewed as a major catalyst day rather than an ordinary trading session.

Instead of immediately following the first market reaction after Nvidia and PCE, confirmation from Treasury yields may provide a clearer indication of whether the move is sustainable.

2. OVERSEAS MARKETS — COMMODITIES ANALYSIS

Commodity markets are currently reflecting an important shift in the nature of global risk.

Lower geopolitical risk surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is weighing on energy prices, while lower US Treasury yields and fiscal concerns continue to support gold.

At the same time, supply constraints are keeping copper relatively strong.

Oil: Negative Outlook Is Strengthening

Selling pressure in oil has intensified.

Brent has declined toward the $86–87 region, while WTI is trading around $80–81.

Expectations that Iran–Oman negotiations could create a temporary framework for the resumption of maritime transportation through the Strait of Hormuz are reducing the geopolitical risk premium.

The key point is that the decline in oil is not simply related to sanctions.

It reflects a decline in the perceived probability of a major supply disruption.

If shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz begins to normalize, supply concerns could ease further.

Brent Levels to Watch

• Initial support: $85–86
• Secondary support: $82–84
• Resistance: $89–91

As long as Brent remains below $91, short-term pressure may continue.

However, unsuccessful negotiations or another security incident in the Strait could trigger a rapid rebound.

Brent Outlook: Negative

WTI Outlook: Negative

Main Risk: Geopolitical volatility remains high

Natural Gas: US Supply Pressure Dominates

The US natural-gas outlook is being driven more by domestic supply-and-demand conditions than by geopolitics.

Milder weather forecasts are reducing expectations for electricity-related demand.

At the same time, strong production continues to put pressure on prices.

Short-term conditions are:

• Demand: Lower
• Supply: Higher
• Inventory pressure: Ongoing
• Technical outlook: Negative / Sideways

Europe, however, is experiencing a different dynamic.

Concerns surrounding LNG supply remain elevated, meaning US and European gas markets could continue to price different fundamental stories in the near term.

US Natural Gas Outlook: Negative / Sideways

Gold: Strong Trend Continues

Despite modest profit-taking on August 25, gold’s broader trend remains strong.

Gold recently tested the $4,650–4,700 region, reaching its highest levels in approximately three months.

The decline in oil prices and the US 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.63% remain supportive.

Factors Supporting Gold

• Lower US Treasury yields,
• Relatively weak US dollar,
• Central-bank demand,
• Concerns over US fiscal conditions,
• Geopolitical uncertainty,
• Inflation risks.

Factors Creating Pressure

• Improving global risk appetite,
• Lower Iran / Strait of Hormuz risk,
• Short-term profit-taking.

Important Gold Levels

Maintaining levels above $4,600–4,620 remains important.

Upside levels include:

• $4,680–4,700
• $4,750
• $4,850–4,900

A decline below $4,600 could increase the risk of a correction toward $4,550–4,500.

Outlook: Positive

Gold continues to receive support from Treasury yields and fiscal concerns even as the geopolitical risk premium in oil declines.

Silver: More Fragile Than Gold

Silver currently appears more sensitive than gold.

Prices have recently traded around the $67–69 region.

Silver has two different characteristics:

1. It benefits from gold because it is a precious metal.
2. It is also sensitive to global growth and risk appetite because of its industrial uses.

This helps explain why silver may not rise as strongly as gold even when the broader precious-metals trend is positive.

Important Silver Levels

• Below $67: Selling pressure could increase
• $65: Important support
• Above $70: Stronger momentum could return
• $72–75: Next potential target region

Outlook: Positive broader trend / Short-term correction risk

Copper: One of the Stronger Commodities

Copper continues to outperform despite weakness in oil.

LME copper remains above approximately $14,200 per tonne, supported by:

• Low LME inventories,
• Strong US import demand,
• Potential production disruptions following flooding in the Democratic Republic of Congo,
• Expectations surrounding Chinese stimulus.

This creates a clear divergence:

Oil → Negative as geopolitical risk premium declines

Copper → Positive due to supply constraints and demand expectations

As long as copper remains above the $14,000–14,200 region, the positive trend may remain intact.

Outlook: Positive

Platinum and Palladium

Profit-taking was visible in both platinum and palladium during the previous session following their recent advances.

Platinum

The medium-term outlook remains positive, although the market is currently experiencing short-term consolidation.

Outlook: Neutral / Positive

Palladium

Palladium appears less robust than platinum and remains more sensitive to:

• Automotive demand,
• Global growth expectations.

A sustained move above previous highs would be needed to restore stronger upward momentum.

Outlook: Neutral

Aluminium: Losing Geopolitical Risk Premium

Aluminium remains under pressure as geopolitical concerns in the Middle East ease.

The market differs significantly from copper.

While copper benefits from low inventories and supply constraints, aluminium is experiencing a more visible decline in geopolitical risk premium.

Short-Term Outlook: Negative / Sideways

Agricultural Commodities

Soybeans

Profit-taking continues after the previous demand-driven rally.

The fundamental picture has not completely deteriorated, but prices may need more time to consolidate recent gains.

Outlook: Sideways / Negative

Wheat

Black Sea supply and trade risks remain relevant.

However, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have reduced part of the risk premium.

Outlook: Negative

Coffee

Supply conditions remain important.

Brazil’s harvest is progressing more slowly than last year, keeping supply concerns alive.

However, profit-taking has emerged following the strong rally.

Medium-Term Outlook: Positive

Short-Term Outlook: Correction

Cotton

Lower oil prices are a negative factor for cotton.

Global growth expectations are also important for demand.

Outlook: Negative

Sugar

Sugar has experienced selling pressure following its previous strong advance.

El Niño-related supply risks remain, although the short-term market is currently being driven by:

Profit-taking + Lower oil prices

Outlook: Sideways / Negative

Cocoa

Supply concerns remain, but easing fears over future availability have weighed on prices.

Outlook: Negative / Sideways

Corn

Corn is showing somewhat better relative performance than several other agricultural commodities.

Expectations of tighter supply remain supportive, although the market is currently consolidating following recent gains.

Outlook: Neutral / Positive

Commodity Outlook — 26 August 2026

Today’s Main Commodity Picture

The most important signal in commodities on August 26 is the divergence between oil and gold.

Oil ↓ → Geopolitical risk is easing

while:

Gold remains strong → US Treasury yields and fiscal concerns continue to provide support

At the same time:

Copper ↑ → Supply constraints and industrial-demand expectations remain supportive

This means commodity markets are not simply pricing a complete disappearance of geopolitical and macroeconomic risk.

Instead, the nature of the risk is changing.

Lower Strait of Hormuz risk is reducing energy prices, while US fiscal concerns and interest-rate expectations continue to support precious metals.

Three Key Developments to Watch

Over the next 24–48 hours, commodity investors should closely monitor:

1. Will Iran–Oman negotiations produce a concrete agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz?
2. Can Brent remain sustainably below $85?
3. Can Gold remain above $4,600 and break through the $4,700 resistance region?

Overall

The central market theme has shifted from a pure geopolitical-risk environment toward a more balanced combination of:

Oil + Treasury yields + Nvidia + PCE

Lower oil prices are currently helping global risk sentiment by reducing inflation concerns.

However, Nvidia earnings and US inflation data have the potential to quickly change the market narrative.

For this reason, the next 24–48 hours are likely to remain highly event-driven and volatile.