After surging nearly 10% earlier this week, crude oil prices eased as traders reacted to fresh diplomatic developments in the Middle East.

Market Snapshot

• Brent slipped back toward $97.
  • WTI retreated toward $96.
  • The pullback followed reports of a conditional ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon.

The Ceasefire Comes With a Catch

• The agreement depends on a complete halt of hostilities by Iran-backed Hezbollah.
  • Any violation could quickly reignite tensions.
  • Markets appear to be pricing the headline rather than the conditions attached to it.

U.S.–Iran Negotiations Still Stuck

• Washington and Tehran reportedly have a framework to extend the truce and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  • However, key details remain unresolved.
  • Iran’s foreign minister stated that “no tangible progress” has been achieved.
  • Tehran continues to warn of possible retaliation if attacks in Lebanon persist.

Hormuz Reopening Remains Uncertain

• President Trump suggested the Strait could reopen almost immediately after a formal agreement.
  • Commodity analysts remain skeptical.
  • Mine-clearing operations, shipping insurance costs, and security concerns could delay a full normalization of traffic.

Cushing Inventories Flash Warning Signs

• U.S. crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma fell for a sixth consecutive week.
  • Stocks are approaching what many consider minimum operating levels.
  • Tight physical inventories continue to provide strong support underneath the market.

U.S. Political Pressure Growing

• • • In a surprising development, the Republican-controlled House voted to halt U.S. military involvement with Iran.
      • The move highlights growing anti-war sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
      • While the measure faces major hurdles, it signals increasing political pressure against escalation.