Brent crude climbed above $104, while WTI approached $98 after both benchmarks surged nearly 2.8% in the previous session.

Key concerns keeping prices elevated:

• US-Iran ceasefire talks appear increasingly fragile as major disagreements remain unresolved.

• Iran reiterated its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, a route responsible for roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows.

• Analysts warn that as long as uncertainty around Hormuz continues, oil prices are likely to remain above $100.

• A potential breakthrough in negotiations could trigger a sharp correction in prices, while renewed escalation may push Brent toward $115 or higher.

• OPEC production reportedly fell to its lowest level in more than two decades due to export disruptions linked to the near-closure of the strait.

• Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that instability in the region could delay a return to oil market balance until 2027.

• The Trump administration announced plans to release 53.3 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to calm markets.

• New US sanctions targeting entities involved in Iranian oil shipments to China added further geopolitical pressure.

• Reports also emerged that the UAE allegedly carried out strikes on Iranian targets earlier this year, although Abu Dhabi has not officially confirmed them.

• What’s Next?
  The market is no longer reacting only to headlines, but to the growing risk of structural supply disruptions. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains part of the geopolitical equation, volatility in energy markets is likely to stay elevated and dips may continue to attract buyers.