• Trump Rejects Peace Offer: Oil prices jumped as much as 4.5% after President Trump dismissed Iran’s latest proposal as totally unacceptable. This rejection has crushed hopes for a swift diplomatic resolution and ensured that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for the foreseeable future.

• Crude Surges Past Key Levels: Brent crude has climbed toward $106 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate is trading near $100. The market is reacting to the reality that the biggest supply shock in history is far from over, with inflation fears returning to the spotlight.

• The Nuclear Standoff: Tensions remain high over Iran’s nuclear stockpile. While reports suggested Tehran might transfer enriched uranium to a third country, the refusal to dismantle facilities remains a deal-breaker for Washington. Meanwhile, Israel has warned that the mission to neutralize Iran’s nuclear capability is not yet finished.
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• Ongoing Shipping Attacks: Despite a fragile ceasefire, a drone strike on a cargo vessel near Qatar has reminded the world that regional waters remain a combat zone. The UAE and Kuwait have also reported intercepting hostile drones, further deterring commercial shipping.

• Supply Chain Strains: Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned that the market may not normalize until 2027 if the Hormuz disruption continues for just a few more weeks. While some tankers are being snuck out and oil is being redirected to Red Sea ports, total flows are only a fraction of pre-war levels.

• The China Factor: All eyes are now on the upcoming meeting between Trump and President Xi Jinping. Trump is expected to pressure China to cut off the revenue and support it provides to Tehran, making this summit a make-or-break moment for global energy stability.

What’s Next?

The rejection of this latest peace deal marks a definitive end to the brief period of market optimism we saw last week. We are no longer looking at a temporary maritime bottleneck but a fundamental restructuring of global energy logistics. The fact that Saudi Aramco is now discussing a 2027 recovery window suggests that the industry is preparing for a permanent shift in how oil moves out of the Gulf.