Mixed Signals for the Greenback Amid Shutdown Uncertainty
Dollar Rally Pauses: The greenback softened after a week of gains as weak US job indicators surfaced amid the ongoing government shutdown.
- China Trade Data Disappoints: Weak export and import figures add pressure on global trade and weigh on commodity-linked currencies.
- EUR/USD Outlook: The euro may recover from the 1.1470 low, but sustained strength depends on clearer US labor market signals.
- BoE Watch: Markets may be underpricing a December rate cut — GBP could weaken if Governor Bailey tilts dovish.
- Market Mood: Nasdaq volatility, Fed’s dovish speakers, and easing repo tightness point to potential DXY consolidation near 100.
What’s Next?: The dollar’s short-term strength looks stretched. With softening data and improved liquidity, consolidation seems more likely than continuation. Staying cautious on DXY while monitoring BoE and US jobs developments.

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