5/03/2026 Daily Reports
Energy as a Weapon: Putin’s Strategic Redirect
President Putin has threatened to redirect gas supplies away from the EU. With storage levels currently below 30% (tightest since 2022), the timing couldn’t be worse.
- The Exposure: In 2025, the EU relied on Russia for 38bcm of gas (12% of total imports).
- The LNG Crunch: While pipeline gas to Hungary and Slovakia might stay, 20bcm of LNG is at high risk.
- The Asia Factor: With Persian Gulf supplies disrupted, Asian buyers are outbidding Europe. Asian spot LNG is trading at a significant premium (up to $6/MMBtu) over European TTF prices.
Aluminum Hits 2022 Highs: Force Majeure in the Gulf
The “Strait of Hormuz” effect is crippling the metals market. Aluminum prices have surged to $3,418/t.
- Alba (Bahrain) & Qatalum (Qatar): Two of the world’s largest producers have declared force majeure.
- Supply Impact: The GCC accounts for 8% of global output. With Iranian drone strikes affecting gas supplies to smelters, the physical shortage is real.
- The Premium: Rotterdam premiums have spiked above $400/t, signaling a desperate scramble for physical metal in Europe.
Precious Metals: The $5,000 Gold Battle
- Support: Geopolitical chaos is keeping a massive risk premium baked into prices. Every dip below $5,000/oz is being met with aggressive buying.
- Pressure: Sky-high energy prices are fueling inflation, which might force central banks to keep interest rates “higher for longer”—usually a bad sign for gold.
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- Following a strong technology-focused rebound on Wednesday, US stock futures remained steady and the Nasdaq rose. Major tech companies such as Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon led the gains, supporting the overall mood in the US market. Geopolitical concerns eased somewhat as the US offered naval escorts and risk insurance to commercial ships passing through the Persian Gulf, but uncertainty remains ahead of the newly announced 15% global US customs tariff, which will take effect later this week.
- European markets also rose, with Germany’s DAX climbing. It was driven by strong performances from Infineon, Daimler Truck Holding, and Siemens Energy.
- In Asia, the Nikkei 225 index rose. Investors reacted positively to gains on Wall Street, while concerns about the Middle East conflict eased. Technology stocks such as Fujikura, Advantest, and Tokyo Electron led the gains.
- Energy markets remained volatile. Brent crude oil rose over 3% to above $83 per barrel, approaching its highest level since July 2024, as escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with over 100 tankers waiting near the strait.
- China ordered major refining companies to halt fuel exports due to the increased risk. In the US, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed crude oil stocks unexpectedly rose by 3.5 million barrels to 439.3 million barrels, further complicating the global oil outlook.
