30/09/2025 Daily Reports
U.S. stocks closed Monday in positive territory after a choppy session, with the Dow rebounding from earlier losses and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing higher, helped by gains in tech. Still, indices pulled back from intraday peaks as investors kept a close eye on political risks in Washington. The threat of a government shutdown looms large after talks between President Trump and congressional leaders failed, raising concerns over delays in key economic data such as Friday’s jobs report.
Uncertainty also grew after Trump floated new tariffs, including steep levies on imported furniture and even foreign films, though without further details. Meanwhile, Fed officials offered mixed signals: some flagged lingering inflation risks while others pointed to rising labor market strains. Markets will be watching upcoming Fed speeches, JOLTS job data, and consumer confidence figures, alongside reports of $19 billion in expected pension fund equity sales this week.
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- Gold broke above $3,800/oz for the first time ever, riding strong momentum in precious metals.
- Silver followed suit, jumping to its highest levels since May 2011.
- The rally was sparked by a weaker U.S. dollar, itself pressured by fears of a U.S. government shutdown and doubts over Fed’s policy direction.
- If a shutdown occurs and key economic releases are delayed, investor uncertainty will likely further fuel demand for safe havens.
- Gold is up nearly 43-45% YTD, backed by central bank buying, ETF inflows, speculation of rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions.
- In industrial metals, China is dialing back growth targets — cutting annual capacity expansion goals from 5% to 1.5% for key nonferrous metals — shifting the focus toward sustainability, recycling, and high value production.
What’s Next?: Gold breaking through $3,800 isn’t just symbolic — it underscores how fragile confidence has become. With policy uncertainty, dollar weakness, and macro risks converging, the precious metals rally may have more room ahead. But volatility is the price to pay in a market this charged.
