29/09/2025 Daily Reports
U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar slipped while Asian stocks edged higher as investors awaited signs of whether Washington can avoid a government shutdown starting Wednesday. Prospects for a deal appear slim ahead of President Trump’s meeting with congressional leaders, and a closure could delay key economic data such as the September payrolls report. Analysts note shutdowns tend to have limited long-term market impact, but the timing complicates the Federal Reserve’s outlook with its next meeting set for late October.
Adding to uncertainty, new U.S. tariffs on trucks, pharmaceuticals, and possibly electronic devices are due to take effect midweek, though details remain unclear. Investors are also keeping an eye on Trump’s packed schedule, including a meeting with top military officials that has fueled speculation about shifts in U.S. defense policy. For now, global equities remain resilient, up 17% year-to-date, with technology and gold leading the way as markets enter a seasonally strong fourth quarter.
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- Gold broke out to a fresh record high at ~$3,798.73/oz.
- The rally is fueled by concerns that a U.S. government shutdown may delay key jobs data — clouding the Fed’s policy path.
- Silver, platinum, and palladium also saw strong gains, with tight supply and ETF inflows adding fuel.
- Softer employment numbers could reinforce expectations of Fed rate cuts, making yieldless metals more attractive.
- Analysts point out that gold is not just overpriced — it offers a Fed-related hedge given the political & policy risks.
- This year, gold is already up over 40%, supported by central bank demand and persistent uncertainty.
What’s Next?: The fact that gold is smashing records now signals more than just safe-haven chasing — it’s a reflection of deepening structural stresses in global policy and market confidence. With the US budget standoff threatening data flow and the Fed’s path growing murkier, gold is performing double duty: hedge and barometer. Those holding it aren’t just hiding from risk — they’re betting on systemic fragility.
