• US-EU Trade Deal Boosts Sentiment
A much-anticipated trade agreement between the US and EU lifts equity futures. The deal includes 15% baseline tariffs and strong commitments to purchase US goods and energy.
• Tariff Deadline Pressure Eases
With 1 August tariffs off the table (for now), investors turn attention to macro data and central bank meetings.
• Big Week for US Data and the Dollar
Jobs (JOLTS, NFP), GDP (Q2 rebound expected), and June core PCE inflation are all due this week. A solid set of numbers could reinforce the Fed’s wait-and-see stance.
• Markets Still See a Quiet August Ahead
Despite the data flow, the market anticipates a low-volatility August—boosting interest in carry trades and leaving the dollar as a less attractive funding currency.
• DXY Seen Consolidating Higher
A strong dollar remains in play, with the DXY potentially grinding up toward 98.50–99.00 if the data continues to support US resilience.
• Euro Rally Might Pause Here
While EUR/USD could hit 1.20 by year-end, the near-term setup looks weaker. Soft eurozone GDP and inflation data, plus low ECB rate cut pricing, could drag EUR/USD down toward 1.1600.
• EUR/GBP Faces Resistance
Despite trading above 0.8735, a move to 0.88 may be tough to sustain in thin August markets. A 0.8700–0.8770 range is more likely for now.
• GBP/USD Under Pressure
A retest of support at 1.3370 looks likely. If broken, downside may extend to 1.3150—especially if US data beats and the Fed holds firm.

• What’s Next?
This week is shaping up to be a defining moment for summer FX markets. While the US-EU trade truce is welcome news, the real driver will be how the Fed balances stronger data against sticky inflation.