26/09/2022 Evening Reports
- We followed the Sectoral Confidence Indices for September in Turkiye today. In September, the Services Confidence Index rose from 116.2 to 118.2, the Retail Confidence Index rose from 112.9 to 115.9, and the Construction Confidence Index rose from 86.3 to 88.1. While the Real Sector Confidence Index, which is one of the other important data announced at the same time, decreased from 101.4 to 100.2, the Manufacturing Industry Capacity Utilization Ratio decreased from 78.1% to 77.4%.
- The Centre-Right Coalition, which is also prominent in the polls, won the general elections held yesterday in Italy. According to the election results, the Brothers of Italy Party obtained 118 seats, the League Party 64 and Forza Italy 47 seats in the parliament. After this distribution, the Center Right Coalition won 238 seats and the Center Left Coalition won 78 seats.
- Japan Central Bank (BOJ) Governor Kuroda said this morning that loose monetary policy will continue to support companies and that BOJ will keep monetary policy loose to support the positive economic cycle, long-term inflation expectations are starting to rise and inflation is starting to increase raw material prices from the Japanese Yen. He said he contributed more.
- The President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Lagarde made an assessment on the outlook of the economy and the interest rate hike process today. In his assessment, Lagarde said that risks to inflation are on the upside due to the possibility of further disruption in energy supply, that the depreciation of the euro also contributed to the increase in inflationary pressures, and that he will continue to increase interest rates further in the next few meetings to protect against the risk of a permanent upward shift in inflation expectations. He said they were waiting.
GBP/USD – Reaction from the Historical Bottom Zone with Speculations Regarding the Bank of England….
After the Bank of England’s 50 basis points increase and the British government’s plan to reduce taxes and increase public borrowing last week, the blood loss in GBPUSD parity continued on the first trading day of the new week and hit the historical lows with 1.033. Market speculations that the Bank of England might hold an emergency meeting to limit the depreciation of the British pound and raise the policy rate helped the pair recover from the bottom and erased its losses in the morning. However, if these speculations regarding the Bank of England fail, the parity may turn down again.
From a technical point of view, the parity, which regressed to the lower band of the descending channel, which we follow on the monthly chart, seems to have recovered back into this channel with the reaction buying. Above 1.0930 and 1.1085 levels can be followed as initial resistance zones. Below, 1.0750-1.0545 levels before the 1.033 band, which is the historical bottom region tested today, can be viewed as intermediate support zones.
XAU/USD – Response Receipts from the Bottom Zone of 5 Months…
The US Dollar Index continued to rise from where it left off last week and climbed to 114.52, its highest level since May 2002, before retracing some of its daily rally in the early European session. Risk aversion, hawkish Fed comments and rising US Treasury yields play a role in the dollar’s impressive performance.
We can say that all these developments are the basic elements of printing on Yellow Metal. After falling to the lowest region it has seen since April 2020 with 1626, Ounce Gold recovered on the 1640 support band, which it broke in the morning hours. In case the reaction buying continues, the bands of 1655 and 1690, which is the 200-week exponential moving average, can be viewed as the first resistance zones. Below, 1640 and 1626 level, which it is testing today, will be our first support zones.
USD/JPY – He erased his losses after the intervention of the Japanese government…
With the rise in the US Dollar index, the USDJPY parity has erased the losses of the USDJPY parity after the market intervention of the Japanese government on Thursday last week. In the event that the parity, which has recovered above the 144.00 band, continues to rise, the 144.38 and 144.80 levels can be viewed as the first resistance zones. Below, the 143.17 band, which is the 10-day exponential moving average, can be followed as the first support zone.
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BRENT – Rebounds Above 100-Week Average…
While the US dollar gains strength against its rivals in the global market and is in demand, the expectations that the tightening monetary policies of major Central Banks, especially the Fed, will have a contractionary effect on the global economy, are putting pressure on oil prices. Brent oil price, which fell below the support of the 100-week exponential moving average in the morning hours, reached its lowest level since January with $ 83. Later in the day, the $86 and $90 levels in Brent oil, which managed to recover above the 100-week average with the reaction buying from the $83 region, can be viewed as the first resistance zones. Below, $83 and $80 levels will be followed by the first support zones, with possible re-trends below the 100-week average.
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