24/11/2022 Evening Reports

CBRT Ends Interest Rate Cycle...
  • Today is Thanksgiving in the USA. Equity markets are closed and futures products also have early closings. Pricing in the market was generally calm due to the “holiday mode”.
  • After the FED minutes released yesterday remained less hawkish, there is a decline in US bond yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.70%.
  • We followed the decision of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey domestically during the day. The bank decided to cut the interest rate by 150 basis points and lowered the policy rate to 9%. In the statement text, the message was given that the end of the interest rate cuts was reached. USDTRY parity maintained its calm stance after the decision and is priced at 18.62 levels.
  • The minutes of the European Central Bank were announced. While it was stated in the minutes that the interest rate hike by 75 basis points was supported by the overwhelming majority, many members agreed that the inflation outlook has deteriorated. Discussions on whether the ECB should continue to increase interest rates were also included in the meeting.

There is no clear consensus on a 50 or 75 basis point rate hike for the December meeting.

Speaking during the day, Makhlouf, one of the ECB members, said that there is a need for an interest rate hike in December.

  • In Germany, the IFO Business Confidence Index rose slightly compared to the previous month and gave hope signals for the German economy. The data was announced as 84.5 last month, and it was 86.3 in November.
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    Support Level: 84.10-82.99-81.60 Resistance Level: 85.54-87.90-89.30

    BRENT

    BRENT – Slightly Recovered With Support From 84.10 Level…

    With the news that the European Union will impose a price ceiling on Russian oil, there were decreases in Brent Petrol until the support of 84.10. There was a slight recovery with the support received from this level. In the continuation of the recovery, 85.54 and 87.90 can be viewed as resistance. In retracements and pricing below 84.10, 82.99 and 81.60 can form support.

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    Support Level: 137.875-136.70-135.56 Resistance Level: 138.875-139.9-140.795

    USD/JPY

    USD/JPY – Falls With FED Expectations…

    It was stated in the FED FOMC minutes announced yesterday that it would be appropriate to reduce the rate of increase in interest rates. With the effect of this statement, the USDJPY parity is falling. In the continuation of the decline, 137.87 and 136.70 can be viewed as support. On the upside, 138.875 and 139.90 may form resistance.

    Support Level: 18.6110-18.33-18.21 Resistance Level: 18.73-18.95-19.07

    USD/TRY

    USD/TRY – Rising Up To 18.6316 Level After CBRT’s Interest Rate Decision…

    In its meeting today, the CBRT decided to lower the Policy Rate by 150 basis points, as expected, at 9.00%. It was also stated that it was decided to end the interest rate cut cycle that started in August. Accompanied by these developments, the USDTRY parity crossed the level of 18.6110 and increased up to the level of 18.6316. In the continuation of the rise, 18.73 and 18.95 can be viewed as resistance. In the pullbacks, the rising price trend that we watch in the 18.6110 and daily period can create support.

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