• The upcoming US CPI print for September is expected at around 0.3% MoM core / ~3.1-3.2% YoY, aligning closely with consensus.
• The view is that this release will not lead to a major USD move or FX volatility — the markets have largely priced in the outcome.
• Key drag factors: airfare, hospitality and housing prices may slow the basket, counter-balancing tariff-led upward pressure.
• The Federal Reserve could still cut rates and signal easing next week, given inflation near ~3% and limited jobs data.
• A more potent FX driver: spill-over from US sanctions on Russian oil producers — potential supply cuts could push Brent back into the $70-75/barrel range, which may boost the dollar.
• On the euro side: the EUR/USD pair may not break below ~1.160 without a hawkish USD shift or weak Eurozone data; PMIs are expected to remain stable.
• On the Canadian dollar: the USD/CAD outlook is weaker for CAD after Donald Trump ended trade talks with Canada — this increases the chance of another Bank of Canada rate cut.

What’s Next?
A jump in oil/commodity prices (driven by sanctions or supply shock) could trigger an unexpected dollar surge; FX cross-pairs like USD/JPY or USD/CAD may react more to structural themes than the headline number; and even with a “normal” inflation print, any hint of dovishness or confidence from the Federal Reserve that they’re comfortable could amplify the move.