24/03/2026 Daily Reports
- Geopolitics isn’t enough: Despite escalating Iran tensions, gold has dropped ~14% since the conflict began.
- Macro dominates: Real yields, the US dollar, and rate expectations are currently the primary drivers of gold prices.
- Liquidity effect: In early crisis phases, gold often acts as a source of cash, not just a safe haven.
- Strong dollar pressure: A rising USD continues to cap upside in gold.
- Energy shock impact: Higher oil prices are fueling inflation concerns, delaying potential rate cuts.
- “Higher for longer” risk: Elevated interest rates keep real yields high — a key headwind for gold.
- Central banks still buying: Structural demand remains, but the pace of purchases is slowing.
- ETF outflows: Investment flows are turning negative, weighing heavily on short-term price action.
- Historical pattern: Similar to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, initial spikes fade as macro forces take over.
- Outlook: Long-term bullish structure intact, but near-term volatility and downside risks are rising.
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- Global markets showed signs of stabilization and recovery as easing geopolitical tensions improved risk sentiment. In the U.S., the Nasdaq staged a sharp intraday rebound, reversing earlier losses after news that the U.S. is engaging in negotiations with Iran, reducing immediate conflict fears and supporting tech stocks.
- European markets remained cautious, with the DAX opening slightly lower but stabilizing after a multi-day selloff. Weakness in major names like SAP and Airbus weighed on the index, though gains in stocks such as BASF and Deutsche Telekom helped limit downside pressure, reflecting a more balanced but still fragile sentiment.
- In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rebounded nearly 1%, recovering from recent heavy losses and tracking the positive momentum from Wall Street. However, gains were partially capped by continued volatility in global energy markets, which remains a key risk factor for equities.
- In commodities, Brent crude oil prices jumped over 3%, climbing back above the $101–$103 range after a sharp 11% drop in the previous session. The rebound reflects a market caught between optimism over renewed diplomatic talks and persistent concerns about potential escalation involving Gulf states. Overall, while risk appetite has improved, markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and energy price swings.
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U.S. equity futures stabilized following a strong rebound across major indices, as easing tensions between Washington and Tehran temporarily improved risk sentiment. Gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average were supported by a broad-based rally, with all sectors closing higher and cyclical segments leading the move. The sharp pullback in oil prices further reinforced the bullish tone, helping to ease inflation concerns and revive expectations that financial conditions may remain supportive for equities in the near term.
Despite the positive momentum, markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Conflicting signals around potential negotiations, alongside continued regional tensions, suggest volatility may persist. Investors are now shifting focus toward upcoming U.S. manufacturing data and corporate earnings, which could provide clearer direction on economic resilience. A strong data print may extend the recovery, particularly in growth-oriented indices like the Nasdaq, while renewed geopolitical escalation or disappointing macro data could quickly reverse recent gains.
