17/05/2023 Daily Reports
- EUR/USD rapidly abandons the area of daily highs around 1.0900 in response to the sudden bout of strength in the dollar following the release of US Retail Sales.
- US Retail Sales expanded at a monthly 0.4% in April, coming in short of initial expectations. Following the release of Retail Sales, US yields made a U-turn and now trade with marked gains across the curve, while the German 10-year Bund yields also leap to the 2.30% region, eroding initial losses.
- The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.0860, slightly down for the day with bearish stance in daily chart. The pair stabilized below 20 and 50 SMA, indicates bearish strength. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA started turning south and heading towards 50 and 200 SMA, suggests bears not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.0950, break above this level will extend the advance to 1.1005.
- Technical readings in the daily chart support the bearish stance. The RSI indicator stabilizes around 43. The Momentum indicator holds below the midline, indicating bearish potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.0830 and below this level will open the gate to 1.0710.
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- The GBP/USD pair witnessed good two-way price swings on Tuesday and now seems to have stabilized around the 1.2500 psychological mark, nearly unchanged for the day. Spot prices hold steady during the early North American session and move little following the release of the US macro data.
- The US Census Bureau reported that the headline US Retail Sales rose 0.4% MoM in April as compared to consensus estimates for a reading of 0.8%. Meanwhile, sales excluding automobiles registered a modest 0.4% growth during the reported month. The data does little to impress the USD bulls or provide any meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair. Against the backdrop of concerns about the US debt ceiling, reviving safe-haven demand leads to a modest downtick in the US Treasury bond yields and undermines the Greenback, which, in turn, lends support to the major.
- The GBP/USD offers neutral to bearish stance in daily chart. Cable stabilizes below 20 and 50 SMA, indicating bearish strength in short term. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA started turning flat but continued developing above longer ones, suggests bulls not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 1.2545 with a break above it exposing to 1.2600.
- Technical readings in the daily chart support the neutral to bearish stances. RSI indicator stabilizes around 50, while the Momentum indicator stabilizes near the midline, suggesting directionless potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1.2430, unable to defend this level will resume the decline to 1.2340.
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- Gold price is erasing Monday’s gains, plunging 1.30%, as data from the US showed signs of resilience amidst a solid retail sales report. Industrial Production recovered in April, though manufacturing production stood at contractionary territory. The factors mentioned above and the US bond yields rising were a headwind for XAU/USD prices. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD is trading at $1990 after hitting a daily high of $2018.
- The US economic agenda revealed that Retail Sales rose by 0.4% MoM, below estimates of 0.8%, aligned with estimates. Annually based figures rose by 1.6% below the prior’s month 2.4% rise, suggesting an ongoing deceleration of the US economy. In another data, the US Fed reported that Industrial Production in April rose by 0.5% MoM, above estimates of 0%, while annually based, uptick to 0.2% from 0.1% in March. The same report showed that Manufacturing Production expanded at a 1% MoM pace, crushing forecasts of 0.1%, with motor vehicle production underpinning the figures.
- Gold price stabilized around 1990, down for the day and neutral to bearish in the daily chart. The gold price stabilizes below 20 SMA, suggesting bearish strength in short term. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA started turning flat but continued developing far above 50 and 200 SMA, indicates bulls not exhausted yet. On upside, the immediate resistance is 2022, break above this level will open the gate for more advance to 2048 area.
- From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator holds below the mid-line and stabilizes around 46, on a bearish strength. The Momentum indicator hold in negative territory, suggests downward potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 1985, below this area may resume the decline to 1970.
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- The USD/JPY pair attracts some dip-buying on Tuesday and move back above the 136.00 mark during the early North American session, above a one-and-half-week high touched the previous day.
- The US Dollar recovers its intraday losses in reaction to hawkish remarks by Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester and turns out to be a key factor lending support to the USD/JPY pair. Mester said that interest rates are not at a sufficiently restrictive level and that the central bank isn’t at the spot to hold rates yet. This, in turn, triggers a sharp intraday rise in the US Treasury bond yields and acts as a tailwind for the Greenback, overshadowing the mixed US Retail Sales figures.
- The USD/JPY pair stabilized around 136.40, up for the day and neutral to bullish in the daily chart. The price stabilizes above 20 and 50 SMA, suggests bullish strength in short term. Meanwhile, 20 SMA continued accelerating north and developing above longer ones, indicating bulls not exhausted. On upside, overcome 136.70 may encourage bulls to challenge 137.90, break above that level will open the gate to 139.90.
- Technical indicators suggest the bullish strength. RSI stabilizes around 60, while the Momentum indicator stabilizes above the midline, suggests upward potentials. On downside, the immediate support is 135.60, break below this level will open the gate to 134.70 area.
- DJI still under the sell pressure, dropped from intraday high 33400 area to low 33030. It recovered modestly in the last hour of US session and ended the day around 33080. Right now market is standing below 20 and 50 SMA, suggests bearish strength. Meanwhile, 20 and 50 SMA continued accelerating south and developing far below 200 SMA, suggests bears not exhausted yet. On upside, overcome 33200 may encourage bulls to challenge 33400, break above that level will open the gate to 33550.
- Technical indicators suggest the bearish movement. RSI stabilizes around 35, while the Momentum indicator stabilizes below the midline, suggests downward potentials. On downside, the immediately support is 33000, break below this level will open the gate for more decline to 32700 area.
- Brent fluctuated in the familiar range, dropped from intraday high 76.00 area to low 74.50 level. It holds near the bottom and ended the day around 74.60, down for the day and indicates neutral to bearish sign in the hourly chart. Meanwhile, the 20 SMA started turning south and heading towards longer ones, indicates bears not exhausted yet. On upside, overcome 76.00 may encourage bulls to challenge 77.60, break above that level will open the gate to 79.20.
- Technical indicators also suggest bearish movement, hovering below the midline. RSI stabilizes at 42, while the Momentum indicator stabilizes in negative territory, suggests downward potentials. On downside, the immediately support is 73.50, break below this level will open the gate for more decline to 71.40 area.
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