16/02/2026 Daily Reports
Gold: Profit-Taking Drags Bullion Below $5,000
The “Post-Inflation” Dip
- Profit Booking: Gold fell as much as 1.1%, slipping just below the $4,991 mark. This comes after a sharp 2.4% gain on Friday, triggered by January CPI data that wasn’t as “hot” as some feared.
- Fed Pivot Hopes: The mild inflation print has reignited hopes for Fed rate cuts. Since gold doesn’t pay interest, lower borrowing costs make it a much more attractive “parking spot” for capital.
The China “Liquidity Vacuum”
- Lunar New Year: With Chinese markets closed for the holiday, liquidity is thin. This “quiet tone” is making price moves feel a bit more exaggerated in Asian trading hours.
- Shenzhen Warning: While traders are away, Chinese authorities are cracking down. Officials in Shenzhen recently issued warnings against “illegal gold-trading,” targeting high-leverage apps and aggressive live-streamed sales.
Consolidation or Crash?
- Orderly Consolidation: Analysts view this move as a healthy pullback rather than a collapse. After hitting a record high of $5,595 in late January and surviving a subsequent rout, gold has already recouped about half of its recent losses.
Structural Resilience
- The core drivers—geopolitical tensions, Fed independence concerns, and a global shift away from sovereign bonds—remain firmly in place.
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Nikkei Slips on Soft Growth, DAX Holds Gains as Nasdaq Futures Edge Higher; Oil and Precious Metals Under Pressure
- Global markets are balancing mixed economic signals, sector rotation, and geopolitical risks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed slightly lower (-0.1%) at around 56,800 after data showed the economy grew just 0.2% annualized in Q4, missing expectations. Financial heavyweights such as Mitsubishi UFJ and Mizuho led declines, reflecting concerns over slowing domestic momentum.
- In the U.S., Nasdaq futures are modestly higher (+0.16%) in thin holiday trading, following a turbulent week where the index dropped more than 2%. Investors remain cautious amid rising concerns that rapid AI disruption could pressure traditional software and transportation sectors.
- Europe is in focus with U.S. markets closed. Germany’s DAX continues to benefit from last week’s strong rally to 25,169, supported by capital rotation out of high-priced U.S. tech stocks into European value shares and growing expectations of interest rate cuts.
- Commodities are broadly weaker. Brent crude trades near $67.70 per barrel, pressured by speculation that OPEC+ may increase output in April and a reduced demand outlook from the IEA. Meanwhile, markets are closely watching upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. Gold has slipped below the key $5,000 level to around $4,990 per ounce as a firmer U.S. dollar weighs on prices. Silver is the sharpest decliner, falling nearly 3% to about $73.65 and extending a three-week losing streak as safe-haven flows shift toward government bonds.
- On the macro front, U.S. CPI at 2.4% year-over-year has led markets to price in an 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut by June 2026, while geopolitical tensions continue to underpin commodity markets despite near-term weakness.
