15/04/2025 Daily Reports
U.S. Futures Dip as Earnings Season Begins Amid Tariff Uncertainty
- U.S. stock futures slipped slightly on Tuesday as investors looked ahead to earnings reports from major firms including Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Citigroup, Interactive Brokers, and PNC Financial. These results are expected to shed light on how companies are managing under the weight of new tariffs and rising economic uncertainty.
- On Monday, equities closed higher, with the Dow up 0.78%, the S&P 500 rising 0.79%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.64%. Most sectors ended in the green, led by real estate, utilities, and consumer staples. The gains were fueled in part by the Trump administration’s decision to exempt certain electronics—such as smartphones, computers, and semiconductors—from new reciprocal tariffs.
- However, President Trump later added confusion by stating these items are still subject to the existing 20% “Fentanyl Tariffs,” muddying the policy landscape and leaving investors cautious as earnings season ramps up.
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Markets Stall as Trump Suggests Possible Tariff Reprieve in Tempered Optimism
- US stock futures were mixed Tuesday following a two-day rally, as investors considered signs the Trump administration will release more tariff exemptions to partially ease trade war pressures. S&P 500 futures were flat, while European stocks gained after Trump signaled a respite on auto tariffs. Boeing fell 4% in pre-market trading after China banned new deliveries of its aircraft.
- Though volatility subsided, sentiment remained fragile. A Bank of America survey measured economic expectations at their most negative level in 30 years. Meanwhile, the US is still mulling the imposition of new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
- Earnings season delivered a mixed set of signals: Bank of America beat expectations on strong trading revenue, but Johnson & Johnson left its outlook unchanged. Geopolitically, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Vietnam to resist “unilateral bullying” — thinly veiled criticism of US policy — though Hanoi held back from supporting the rhetoric, suggesting it prefers to remain neutral in US-China tensions.
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Gold Edges Toward Record Highs Amid Escalating Trade Tensions
- Gold trades around $3,223/oz, just shy of the all-time high set on Monday — marking a more than 20% gain YTD.
US-China Trade War Intensifies:
- Trump administration initiates new national security probes into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports.
- Seen as a precursor to broader tariffs, fueling market anxiety and uncertainty.
Global Confidence in the US Dollar & Treasuries Erodes:
- 10-year Treasury yields see their biggest weekly jump since 2001.
- Investors turning away from traditional safe havens like USD toward alternatives like JPY, CHF, and most notably, gold.
Fed Signals Rate Cuts Likely in H2 2025:
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller downplays inflation risks, opens door to multiple rate cuts.
- Lower rates reduce opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold → bullish for precious metals.
Goldman Sachs Forecast:
- Bullion to rally to $4,000/oz by mid-2026, supported by central bank accumulation and ETF inflows.
China’s Role Can’t Be Ignored:
- As the largest physical gold market, Chinese investors are responding to:
• Yuan devaluation
• Macroeconomic volatility
• Rising dedollarization narrative
What’s Next?
- In a world where geopolitical risks and currency credibility are being re-evaluated almost weekly, gold’s rise is more than a safe haven trade — it’s becoming a vote of no confidence in existing monetary regimes.
- If current macro conditions persist, this could be the beginning of a structural bull run in precious metals.
