The dollar posted a modest gain on Wednesday after U.S. inflation data for August came in largely as expected, reducing the likelihood of a jumbo 50 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month, with annual inflation advancing at 2.5%, marking the slowest pace since February 2021. The core inflation measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3%, slightly above estimates.
Following the report, market odds of a 50bp rate cut dropped below 20%, while Treasury yields advanced, particularly in the 2-year tenor, which gained 5 basis points. The yield curve flattened further, with the 2s-10s spread deepening to -3.99 basis points.
Elsewhere, the euro remained around the 1.10 level, with large options set to expire Thursday following the European Central Bank’s rate decision. The pound weakened as UK GDP and output data fell short of expectations.
Hurricane Francine Disrupts Energy Hubs in Louisiana
On Wednesday, energy production and agricultural exports from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico experienced partial disruptions, and several oil refineries in Louisiana reduced their operations in anticipation of Hurricane Francine’s landfall later that day, as reported by officials and operators.
U.S. crude oil prices surged over 2% due to concerns about prolonged production halts in the offshore oil sector as Hurricane Francine advanced. Nearly 39% of oil production and almost 50% of natural gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were suspended that day. A total of 171 production platforms and three rigs had been evacuated. These shutdowns resulted in a reduction of approximately 675,000 barrels of oil per day and 907 million cubic feet of natural gas per day from offshore production, according to the offshore regulator. The Gulf region accounts for about 15% of U.S. oil output and 2% of natural gas production.
According to analysts, oil and gas production could be impacted for approximately two weeks, depending on the hurricane’s impact upon landfall. Strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane, Francine’s eyewall was approaching southern Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon, with maximum sustained winds reaching 100 mph (155 kph), as reported by the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The hurricane’s center is anticipated to move across Mississippi on Thursday.
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