• Trump Installs a Fed Dove
Stephen Miran is nominated as interim FOMC member until January—aligning with Trump’s dovish stance and downplaying tariff inflation risks. Potentially open to a 50bp cut push, though short-term rate impact muted.
• US Jobs Data Weakens
Initial jobless claims rose to 226k, while continuing claims surged to their highest since Nov 2021, signalling a faster deterioration in the labour market.
• DXY Holding Near 98.0
With no major US data today and CPI due Tuesday, the dollar may stabilise short term, but the broader bias remains bearish.
• Canada Jobs in Focus
Unemployment is expected to climb to 7.0%. Risks remain for two BoC cuts this year as tariff impacts deepen—CAD outlook still bearish in crosses.
• Euro Gains, But Truce Hopes Cautious
EUR initially benefited from news of Trump-Putin talks next week, but markets remain wary of a full Ukraine ceasefire. Energy prices and EUR crosses will be key sentiment gauges.
• SEK Outperforms NOK
Lower energy price exposure supports the Swedish krona over the Norwegian krone, with NOK/SEK falling. Riksbank unlikely to add cuts despite market pricing.
• Peak Dissent at the BoE
A narrow 5-4 vote for a 25bp cut, with strong hawkish dissent, signals the easing cycle is nearing its end. Sterling rallies, yield curve bear flattens. Cable looks well-positioned to test above 1.35.

• What’s Next?
Central bank divergence is the theme of the week—while the Fed edges dovish with Trump’s interim pick, the BoE just signalled it’s nearing the end of its cuts. For FX traders, this split creates opportunity: the pound could shine against the dollar, but the euro’s truce-fuelled optimism still needs proof to break higher.