16/09/2026 – Daily Reports
Dollar Holds Gains Ahead of Fed Decision
- Markets price around a 90% chance of a 25bp Fed hike, which could provide modest support for the dollar.
- USD/JPY climbed to 155.43, while EUR/USD remained near 1.1535 and GBP/USD around 1.3470.
- The dollar’s recent strength is supported by expectations that the Fed may need several hikes to contain inflation driven by higher energy prices.
- A hike without a signal for further increases could limit dollar gains, while a no-hike scenario could trigger a sharp decline.
- Markets also price around an 80% chance of a BoJ hike on Friday, keeping USD/JPY highly sensitive to both central banks.
What’S Next?
•The Fed’s guidance will be more important than the 25bp hike itself. A hawkish message could push the dollar and yields higher, while a “one-and-done” signal could trigger profit-taking in USD positions.
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- The Fed is today’s main focus. The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision today, with markets pricing a 92.4% probability of at least a 25bp rate hike. The statement, Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments and the new projections will be closely watched.
- Oil prices remain elevated. Brent is trading around $108, with Middle East and Strait of Hormuz supply risks keeping inflation concerns elevated. However, an unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories has pushed oil prices lower today.
- Gold is trading around $4,330, up roughly 0.8% ahead of the Fed decision. Silver is around $64.6, platinum around $1,788 and palladium around $1,310. A hawkish Fed message could put renewed pressure on precious metals.
- U.S. Treasury yields remain a key market driver, with the 10-year yield staying above 5%. Higher oil prices and inflation expectations continue to support elevated yields, while equities remain cautious ahead of the Fed decision.
Global Market News Summary — 16 September 2026
- US indices closed lower on Monday, with the Nasdaq 100 down 0.8% as chipmakers sold off after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for a slower pace of AI development, a view endorsed by OpenAI’s Sam Altman and xAI’s Elon Musk. Stocks slipped again Tuesday as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.04%, its highest since 2007, with CME FedWatch showing 92% odds of a rate hike. The FOMC concludes its two-day meeting today at 14:00 ET with an updated Summary of Economic Projections; the target range currently stands at 3.50%–3.75% after a 9–3 vote to hold in July. August retail sales were released this morning.
- The DAX index fell 128 points, or 0.50%, on Monday to close at 25,441, led lower by Siemens Energy (-8.04%) and Infineon (-7.68%), while SAP (+5.18%) and Scout24 (+3.35%) gained. European equities slid further on AI safety warnings and Fed rate-hike bets, and slipped again ahead of the Fed meeting amid the expanding Gulf conflict. The ECB has already raised rates in response to the energy shock.
- The Nikkei index rise 0.4% on Tuesday , a six-week low, with Kioxia (-6.4%) and Taiyo Yuden (-5.4%) among decliners, while SoftBank Group dropped 10.7% after Sam Altman said OpenAI would not pursue an IPO this year. It recovered 0.4% Tuesday to above 63,700 as select tech names rebounded. The Bank of Japan decides on 18 September, with a 25bp hike to about 1.25% widely expected; 10-year JGB yields are near 2.98%.
- Spot Gold traded near $4293/oz on Tuesday, its lowest since early August, pressured by a firmer dollar and elevated Treasury yields; it was quoted at $4330 early Wednesday. The World Gold Council reported $18bn of ETF inflows in August, lifting holdings to a record 4,189 tonnes.
- Brent rose past $108 on Tuesday, a four-month high, as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline — carrying 7 million b/d to the Red Sea — remained shut after attacks, Saudi output fell to its lowest since 1990, and Libya suspended several oilfields with a force majeure warning. Prices eased $105,15 Wednesday, with Aramco cancelling some September European deliveries and no restart timeline given. A Gulf states–Iran meeting in Oman on Hormuz was postponed.
