19/02/2026 Daily Reports
Gold’s Calm After the Storm
Global Markets Navigate AI Disruption Fears and Geopolitical Tensions; Europe Breaks Higher as Gold Tests $5,000
- Global markets are balancing tech-sector disruption fears, shifting central bank expectations, and rising geopolitical risks. In the U.S., the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.10% to 22,578.38, with sentiment shaped by “SaaSpocalypse” concerns over AI-driven disruption in software. The latest Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes revealed a divide among policymakers—some leaning toward rate cuts, others wary of persistent inflation. Optimism in tech was supported by reports that OpenAI is nearing a $100 billion funding round.
- In Europe, Germany’s DAX is pushing toward the 25,150–25,200 resistance zone after a bullish breakout, underpinned by an upgraded 2026 GDP forecast of 1.0%. The UK’s FTSE 100 hit a record 10,686.18 as softer inflation strengthened expectations for Bank of England rate cuts.
- In Asia, the Nikkei 225 gained 1.36% to 57,334.00, buoyed by a $550 billion Japan-U.S. investment pact and strong export growth to China, despite soft Q4 GDP. Regional volumes remain thin due to Lunar New Year holidays.
- Brent crude is trading near $70.50–$70.60 amid volatile U.S.-Iran talks and escalating Russia-Ukraine strikes, with geopolitical risk premiums persisting. Gold hovers just below $5,000 per ounce, while silver trades around $77–$78, supported by safe-haven demand but capped by a resilient dollar and uncertainty surrounding Fed leadership transition.
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Oil Markets on Edge: Conflict Concerns Drive Prices Higher
- Price Surge: Brent crude has stabilized above $70 a barrel, while WTI is trading over $65 following the biggest daily jump since last October.
- Military Speculation: Reports suggest a potential US military intervention in Iran could happen sooner than expected, with rumors of a “weeks-long campaign” aimed at regime change.
- Global Supply Risk: A full-scale conflict threatens the Middle East region, which is responsible for roughly one-third of the world’s oil supply.
- Political Dilemma: President Trump faces a tough balancing act; aggressive foreign policy could lead to higher gasoline prices, potentially alienating voters ahead of the upcoming mid-term elections.
- Stalled Diplomacy: While Tehran mentions a “general agreement” on nuclear terms, US officials remain skeptical, and new visa restrictions have been imposed on Iranian officials.
- The Russia Factor: Beyond the Middle East, stalled peace talks in Ukraine and a slowdown in Russian drilling are adding further pressure to global supply levels.
- Inventory Drop: Domestic supply is also tightening, with the API reporting a drop of over 600,000 barrels in US crude inventories last week
