10/02/2026 Daily Reports
Global equity markets continue to push toward fresh record levels, supported by resilient technology sector momentum and strong risk appetite following Japan’s post-election rally. However, new moves from the Trump administration to roll back key climate regulations could create volatility within ESG-focused sectors and introduce a new theme for sector rotation. While broad indices remain supported, political and regulatory developments — particularly around environmental policy — may trigger divergence between traditional energy, industrial and sustainability-themed investments in the coming sessions.
On the macro front, markets are heavily focused on a dense U.S. data calendar including retail sales, delayed payroll figures and inflation data, all of which could reshape expectations around Federal Reserve policy currently leaning toward a mid-year rate cut. The ongoing weakness in the dollar, combined with signals of potentially slower job growth and evolving trade policy narratives, adds another layer of uncertainty for global indices. Strong or surprising data releases could drive sharp moves across S&P 500, Nasdaq and global benchmarks this week, making macro headlines and central bank commentary the primary catalysts to watch
Big Banks Are Doubling Down
- Wells Fargo & JPMorgan: Analysts have dramatically shifted their targets. Wells Fargo just upgraded its 2026 year-end forecast to a staggering $6,100–$6,300.
- UBS & Deutsche Bank: Major institutions are clustering their predictions around the $6,000 zone, viewing the recent “rout” as a healthy correction rather than a trend reversal.
Central Banks: The “Unstoppable” Buyers
- De-dollarization in Action: Central banks, led by China (buying for 15 straight months), are diversifying away from US Treasuries.
- Structural Shift: For the first time in decades, gold accounts for a larger share of central bank reserves than US debt for many nations. This creates a “permanent floor” for prices.
Macro Tailwinds
- Geopolitical Heat: Tensions in the “Dark Zones” and trade conflicts continue to drive safe-haven flows.
- The Fed Factor: With Kevin Warsh (a known low-rate advocate) in focus and potential rate cuts on the horizon, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold is plummeting.
- Debt Wall: Investors are increasingly using gold as “baseload collateral” against the backdrop of record global sovereign debt.
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- Global markets are navigating a mix of political momentum, macro uncertainty, and commodity volatility. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.3% to a historic close at 57,650.54, fueled by a landslide election victory for Sanae Takaichi’s party and expectations of continued fiscal stimulus. The rally underscores strong investor confidence in policy continuity.
- In the U.S., the Nasdaq is adopting a more cautious tone. After gaining 0.9% on Monday—driven by strength in AI and semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia and Broadcom—futures are edging lower as investors await critical labor market data and inflation figures. These releases, including the delayed Non-Farm Payrolls (Wednesday) and CPI (Friday), are expected to shape the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision.
- Germany’s DAX is hovering near the 25,000 mark but faces mild pressure (down around 0.2%), weighed by restructuring and job cuts in the auto sector alongside investment outflows.
- In commodities, Brent crude has stabilized around $69.30 per barrel, influenced by U.S. policy toward Venezuelan oil exports and tensions with Tehran. Gold has rebounded above $5,050 per ounce after a recent correction, with attention turning to U.S. inflation data and central bank demand. Silver remains volatile, having surged over 7% in a single session before consolidating near $82.
- Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below 97 amid reports that Chinese regulators urged institutions to scale back U.S. Treasury exposure, adding another layer to global macro uncertainty.
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