03/02/2026 Daily Reports
Markets Steady After the Stormion
- Precious Metals Reality Check: After a historic rally (Gold hitting $5,500/oz and Silver near $120/oz), prices are correcting. This was largely driven by speculative flows from China, and we are now seeing a massive unwinding of those “stretched” positions.
- Oil’s Risk Premium Evaporates: Brent crude plunged over 4% as fears of U.S.-Iran military escalation cooled. With nuclear talks potentially back on the table, the “war premium” is pricing out, despite current physical tightness.
- The “Warsh” Factor: President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair has sent shockwaves through the market. As a perceived “hawk,” his influence boosted the USD, putting heavy downward pressure on dollar-priced assets like gold and oil.
- The India-Russia Pivot: A new U.S.-India trade deal could reshape oil flows. If India stops buying Russian crude as suggested, Russia may be forced to cut output due to a lack of buyers—a move that could ironically tighten the market later this year.
- Europe’s Gas Vulnerability: While TTF prices dropped 13% due to milder weather forecasts, the safety net is thinning. EU gas storage is at 41%, significantly lower than last year’s 53%, leaving the continent exposed to any late-winter cold snaps.
- Copper & AI Structural Demand: Despite a 10% dip, Copper remains a favorite. The narrative of tight mine supply combined with the massive electricity needs for AI data centers and electrification keeps the long-term outlook bullish.
- New Sanctions on the Horizon: The EU is considering a ban on Russian copper and platinum-group metals (iridium, rhodium). If approved, this would target Norilsk Nickel, further tightening markets that are already in deficit.
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