07/01/2026 Daily Reports
- Geopolitical Fatigue: After a massive 4% rally fueled by the Venezuelan crisis, Gold has softened to around $4,466/oz. Traders are starting to “look past” the headlines, including Trump’s claim that Venezuela will hand over 50 million barrels of oil to the US.
- New Fronts in Friction: Geopolitics remain wild: The White House has refused to rule out military force to acquire Greenland, and China has imposed new export controls on Japan. Yet, the “fear trade” is temporarily taking a back seat to economic data.
- Fed Pivot Hopes: Fed Governor Stephen Miran hinted at aggressive easing, suggesting the central bank may need to cut rates by more than 1% in 2026. Since bullion pays no interest, this “dovish” outlook is a major structural tailwind for gold.
- The Silver Squeeze: Silver is the star of 2026 so far, up 12% in just one week after a staggering 150% gain in 2025. Despite a 2% dip today to $79.69/oz, retail appetite—especially in China—remains insatiable.
- The $13 Billion Rebalancing: Citigroup warns of a short-term drag: Massive passive funds are rebalancing their commodity indexes, which could trigger nearly $6.8 billion in outflows from both gold and silver futures contracts this week.
- Focus on Friday: All eyes are now on the December Jobs Report (NFP). If the labor market shows weakness, it will cement the case for those Fed rate cuts and likely reignite the rally in precious metals.
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U.S. equity futures were largely flat after Wall Street extended its rally, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closing at fresh record highs while the Nasdaq also advanced. Expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver multiple rate cuts continue to underpin sentiment, improving the earnings outlook and supporting broad-based sector gains. Cyclical areas such as materials, healthcare and industrials led the advance, highlighting improving risk appetite beyond mega-cap names.
Technology remained a key driver, particularly within semiconductors and data storage, where renewed investor interest fueled strong gains across the space. Chipmakers and related hardware stocks outperformed, helped by optimism around AI-related demand following positive industry commentary at CES. Overall, the tone remains constructive, with markets supported by easing monetary policy expectations and resilient demand trends, though investors remain alert to upcoming macro data for confirmation.
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Gold prices traded sideways after recording gains over the past three sessions, as market participants shifted their focus to U.S. economic data scheduled for release this week, despite elevated geopolitical risks.
Bullion traded at around $4,490 per ounce, having gained more than 4% over the previous three sessions. Following the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, the White House stated on Tuesday that President Donald Trump has not ruled out the use of military force to acquire Greenland. Meanwhile, China imposed restrictions on exports to Japan that could have military applications, further escalating tensions between Asia’s two leading economies.
While geopolitical risks remain prominent, investors have turned their attention to a busy U.S. data calendar, led by the December employment report due on Friday. Manufacturing data released on Tuesday came in below expectations, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may proceed with further interest rate cuts.
