27/11/2025 Daily Reports
Wall Street rallied for a fourth straight session as strong tech sentiment and growing confidence in a December Federal Reserve rate cut fueled risk appetite ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Fears over stretched tech valuations eased following upbeat results and guidance from Nvidia, with Dell’s better-than-expected revenue outlook further boosting AI-related momentum. Lighter holiday trading volumes and increased optimism from retail investors also supported sentiment. Markets now assign nearly an 85% probability to a 25-basis-point cut in December, reinforcing expectations that looser policy will underpin equities into year-end.
Economic signals were mixed but did little to curb the rally. Core capital goods orders topped expectations, pointing to stronger corporate investment, while unemployment claims showed a softening labor market consistent with recent surveys. Airline stocks outperformed on what is typically the busiest U.S. travel day of the year, a positive sign for consumer activity heading into the crucial holiday shopping stretch. Overall, investors remained focused on resilient economic momentum, tech sector strength, and an increasingly accommodative Fed outlook.
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Silver: Physical Tightness
- Decade Lows: Silver inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have plunged to their lowest level since 2015.
- Market Signal: The Shanghai market is in backwardation (spot prices higher than future prices), a classic signal of immediate physical shortage.
Oil: The Thanksgiving Standoff
- Rangebound: Crude is caught in a tug-of-war. Bearish pressure comes from hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal (removing supply risk), while Bullish support comes from the “risk-on” rally and expected Fed rate cuts.
- Inventory Surprise: The latest EIA report was bearish. US crude stocks rose by 2.77m barrels (vs. API’s predicted drop), driven by lower exports.
- OPEC+ Watch: The cartel meets this weekend. The market consensus is that they will leave production unchanged, but Russian supply uncertainty remains a wildcard.
- Note: Expect low volume today due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.
Natural Gas: A Dangerous Bet?
- The Big Shift: For the first time since March 2024, investment funds have flipped NET SHORT on European gas (TTF).
- The Paradox: Funds are betting on prices falling, even though EU gas storage has dropped below 78% (lower than average).
- The Risk: With record high gross short positions, the market is incredibly vulnerable. Any supply surprise or sudden cold snap could trigger a massive short squeeze.
