Gold Breaks $4,000/oz Amid Shutdown Anxiety,Tech Leads US Pullback After Tesla Launch, FOMC Minutes and BOJ Hike Risks in Focus
- Global markets are on edge due to a combination of political turmoil, shifting monetary policy expectations and individual stock movements. Gold has surged above $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history, reflecting heightened demand for safe havens stemming from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has halted the release of key economic data, as well as general uncertainty over the U.S.’s economic and political outlook.
- In the US, the Nasdaq has slipped from its recent record highs amid a tech-led pullback. This was partially fuelled by a negative market reaction to Tesla’s launch of cheaper Model 3 and Model Y variants, with investors selling the stock due to concerns over pricing power and product strategy. Attention now turns to the release of the FOMC minutes (2:00 p.m. ET), which are expected to shed light on the committee’s stance on future rate cuts, given that the shutdown is obscuring the economic picture.
- Europe’s DAX is showing signs of fragility, with the euro softening due to ongoing political turmoil in France, which provides a slight cushion for German exporters. Meanwhile, energy stocks are finding support as oil firms follow OPEC+’s lead in keeping supply tight.
- In Japan, the market is mixed due to thinner liquidity caused by Asian holidays. The yen remains weak (near multi-month lows), which typically provides a boost for Japanese exporters. However, the risk of a potential Bank of Japan rate hike in October — a possibility raised by a former BOJ official due to inflation and yen weakness — is acting as a counter-headwind for rate-sensitive assets.

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Dollar Strength Faces a Reality Check: What’s Next After the Fed?
- USD rally looks overdone:
The dollar’s strength has been fueled by political uncertainty in France and Japan, pushing DXY to its highest since August.
- FOMC minutes in focus:
Investors are watching today’s Fed minutes for clues on future cuts. Any sign of broader support for a 50bp cut could trigger a dollar correction.
- Gold shines bright:
Amid political and economic uncertainty, gold hit the historic 4,000 dollar level, with strategists expecting further upside.
- EUR under pressure:
France faces a deadline to form a new government today. Failure may lead to snap elections, adding pressure on the euro. A test of 1.150 EUR/USD is possible, but analysts see a rebound toward 1.170 as more likely.
- NZD weakens on surprise cut:
The RBNZ shocked markets with a 50bp rate cut, sending NZD/USD down 1 percent. Another cut in November looks possible as the central bank prioritizes growth over inflation concerns.
- What’s Next? :
While the dollar has clearly gained from global political uncertainties, I believe this rally is built more on short-term sentiment than solid fundamentals. The Fed minutes are likely to reveal a dovish bias, which could shift market expectations toward further easing.