Energy – OPEC+ and Oil

• ICE Brent traded above $65/bbl, while NYMEX WTI approached $62/bbl after OPEC+ announced a 137k b/d production hike for November.
• Markets had expected a more aggressive move, but OPEC+ remains cautious given surplus forecasts for late 2025 and 2026.
• Ukraine’s latest attack on Russia’s Kinef refinery (20mt annual capacity) adds to geopolitical risks.
• US oil rig count fell for the first time in six weeks, hinting at possible drilling slowdown amid fears of oversupply.

Metals – Gold & Copper Shine

• Gold hit a record high above $3,945/oz, supported by safe-haven demand as the US government shutdown drags on.
• Gold ETF holdings rose for the 7th consecutive session, hitting the highest since Sept 2022.
• LME copper rallied above $10,785/t on expectations of Fed rate cuts and supply disruptions at major mines (Freeport, Codelco, Hudbay).
• Lead inventories showed the biggest daily decline since July 2025, with heavy outflows into Singapore warehouses.

Agriculture – Coffee on Fire

• Arabica coffee surged 3%+ amid dry weather in Brazil, with La Niña risks threatening crop development.
• ICE-monitored coffee stocks fell to their lowest since March 2024, mainly due to reduced Brazilian beans.
• Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica forecast was cut from 37m to 35.2m bags.
• Vietnam’s September coffee exports hit 81kt (+58.5% YoY), but slipped 4.7% MoM.
• French corn harvest progress accelerated to 24%, though overall crop quality lags last year.

What’s Next?

• Energy markets remain highly sensitive to OPEC+ supply strategies and geopolitical tensions, while gold is feeding off uncertainty around the US shutdown and monetary policy. Agricultural commodities, especially coffee, are set to remain volatile as weather shifts dominate supply outlooks.