The daily reports for important events that affects the forex, stocks and commodities markets.

03/09/2024 Evening Reports

Fed policymakers agree on need for rate cuts, but their reasons vary

As recently as two and a half months ago, most U.S. central bankers didn’t see an interest rate cut in the cards at their Sept. 17-18 meeting. By the end of last month, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it was time to start lowering borrowing costs, nearly all of his colleagues thought so too. In large part, that was because a wide range of data moved in one direction.

That pushed Fed policymakers to reassess the risks to their outlook, including whether their chief concern should be persistent inflation, labor market weakness, a deterioration in business or household financial conditions, a potential policy mistake, or some combination of those factors.

“It’s not one thing that causes everyone to move. It’s different people focus on different data, different indicators, different risks, and then they all end up in the same place,” said Kristin Forbes, an economics professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management and a former member of the Bank of England’s policy-setting committee.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last month, where Powell declared the time had come for U.S. rate cuts, Forbes said: “And that’s where a good (Fed) Chair can bring people together to get the outcome they want, but often by drawing on different motivations to get different people there.”

At least a couple of Fed policymakers appear to still be on the fence, their support for policy easing contingent on further signs of a slowdown in inflation or weakness in the labor market.

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US Dollar Rises as Markets Focus on Key Employment Data

The US dollar strengthened against most major trading partners early Tuesday, except for a dip against the yen, following the long holiday weekend. Markets are now keenly focused on the upcoming August employment data, which could heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s decision-making.

With the Fed increasingly concerned about employment weakness, a second consecutive soft jobs report this Friday could sway expectations toward a larger rate cut at the upcoming Sept. 17-18 FOMC meeting. As the quiet period before the meeting begins on Saturday, any comments from Fed officials after Friday’s report will be closely watched.

The shortened week kicks off with S&P Global’s manufacturing data for August at 9:45 am ET, followed by the ISM’s manufacturing index, construction spending figures for July, and the RealClearMarkets consumer sentiment index at 10:00 am ET.

Wednesday’s highlights include ADP private payrolls, job openings, hiring data, and the Fed’s Beige Book. Thursday brings Challenger layoffs, weekly jobless claims, revised productivity and labor costs, and services data.

Following Friday’s employment report, the St. Louis Fed is expected to update its GDP nowcast estimate.

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