10/04/2026 Daily Reports
Asian equities posted modest gains, supported by strength in technology shares and selective buying after recent volatility. MSCI’s regional index moved higher, while South Korean stocks outperformed with solid gains. Optimism around AI-related demand, highlighted by fresh large-scale computing deals tied to companies like Meta Platforms, helped lift sentiment in the tech sector, which has been relatively resilient despite geopolitical tensions. However, U.S. equity futures slipped slightly, reflecting ongoing caution among global investors.
Markets remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the fragile ceasefire involving Iran and the U.S., with attention firmly on upcoming talks. Oil prices ticked higher as uncertainty persisted around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supply. While equities have shown signs of stabilization and are on track for weekly gains, the sustainability of the rally will depend heavily on whether the truce holds and energy flows normalize. Until then, investors are likely to remain cautious, balancing improving risk appetite with ongoing geopolitical risks.
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- March CPI Test: All eyes are on the U.S. Consumer Price Index report. Headline inflation is expected to jump nearly 1.0% month-on-month, reaching 3.4% year-on-year. While core inflation remains modest, the “hot” headline figures might make it difficult to bet against the Dollar today.
- Ceasefire Fragility: The de-escalation narrative is under pressure. Ongoing strikes in Lebanon are creating friction in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, though investors are holding onto hope for the Israel-Lebanon talks scheduled for next week.
- Dollar Resistance: The Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering just below 99.0. While a permanent peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger another leg lower for the Greenback, today’s high inflation data provides a “floor” for the USD.
Currency Spotlights
- EUR: Stickier Than Expected: Markets have ruled out an April rate hike from the ECB, but expectations for year-end tightening remain “sticky” at around 50bp. This hawkish backdrop supports the Euro over lower-yielding currencies like the Yen.
- CAD: Jobs Data Collision: Canada releases its March jobs report today. With unemployment at 6.7%, any further decline could turn the Bank of Canada more hawkish, though risks remain skewed toward the dovish side due to looming USMCA renegotiations.
- Commodity Currencies (AUD & NOK): These remain the favorites if de-escalation continues. Both are well-positioned to benefit from sticky energy prices and domestic rate hike prospects.
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- In the United States, the Nasdaq Composite index advanced 0.8%, supported by a broader Wall Street rally. The market movement was primarily driven by investor reaction to the scheduled weekend ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran in Pakistan. In corporate developments, the technology sector experienced notable activity, highlighted by cloud computing provider CoreWeave pricing an upsized $3.5 billion convertible senior notes offering and expanding its computing capacity agreement with Meta Platforms.
- In European markets, the German DAX index recorded a modest gain of 0.18%,. The Frankfurt exchange tracked the global positive sentiment surrounding the potential normalization of Middle East shipping routes. This upward movement was sustained despite the release of challenging domestic economic indicators, which confirmed that Germany’s inflation rate has officially reached its highest level since January 2024.
- In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index jumped 1.84%. The advance secured a 7.15% weekly increase, marking the index’s largest one-week percentage gain since August 2024. The Tokyo market was heavily supported by domestic technology and retail equities. Fast Retailing shares surged over 9% after the company raised its full-year profit guidance, while semiconductor-linked firms such as Advantest and Kioxia posted significant gains amid the improved global risk appetite.
- Brent crude oil futures traded near $96 per barrel today, remaining on track for a sharp weekly decline of more than 10% following the initial two-week US-Iran truce. However, intraday prices edged higher due to persistent physical supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to commercial maritime traffic, and Saudi Arabia formally reported that recent attacks on its energy infrastructure have reduced the kingdom’s oil production capacity by approximately 600,000 barrels per day.
