06/01/2026 Daily Reports
U.S. President Donald Trump’s expectations regarding Venezuela’s oil resources may be unrealistic. Although Trump has suggested that U.S. oil companies could gain access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, industry sources say American firms are reluctant to invest in the country. Key reasons include ongoing political uncertainty, the poor condition of Venezuela’s oil sector, and the government’s history of seizing U.S. assets. In addition, low global oil prices make it difficult to justify the high costs required to revive the industry. Industry representatives also note that the White House did not sufficiently consult with the oil industry on this issue.
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European equities are set to open higher as investors balance easing risk sentiment with a busy macro agenda. Markets remain attentive to geopolitical developments involving Venezuela, though recent signals suggest limited near-term economic fallout. Asian equities extended their global rally, while the dollar stabilized near recent highs. Gold firmed on safe-haven demand and oil prices edged lower after recent gains, reflecting a cautious but orderly risk backdrop across asset classes.
The main focus this week shifts to U.S. macro data, particularly the December jobs report, inflation expectations and labor market indicators, which are expected to shape expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. Recent commentary from Fed officials has reinforced a data-dependent stance, keeping rate-cut expectations finely balanced. In Europe, preliminary inflation readings from major economies will also be watched closely for confirmation of disinflation trends. Overall, markets appear constructive but sensitive, with upcoming data likely to be the key driver of short-term direction.
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- Oil’s Tug-of-War: Brent crude is “gyrating” around $61.76/bbl. The market is torn: short-term supply from Venezuela is at risk due to the chaos of Maduro’s arrest, but long-term “regime change” could eventually flood the market with heavy crude.
- Copper Hits the Stratosphere: In a historic move, Copper touched $13,000/t for the first time ever. A toxic mix of Trump’s tariff uncertainties, mine strikes in Chile (Mantoverde), and massive stockpiling has created a “supply squeeze” that made 2025 its best year since 2009.
- Gold & Silver on Fire: Geopolitical turmoil is the ultimate fuel for precious metals. Gold has surged over 2.5% to $4,455/oz, while Silver spiked 5% to cross $77/oz. Investors are running to safety as the US-Venezuela situation remains a wild card.
- The “Canada vs. Venezuela” Battle: Canadian heavy crude (WCS) is taking a hit. If Venezuela stabilizes and resumes exports to the US Gulf Coast, demand for Canadian oil will likely plummet, ending its recent price premium.
- Coffee & Cocoa Divergence: * Coffee: Robusta prices are falling as Vietnam’s exports surged 40% in December thanks to better weather.
- Cocoa: Prices are climbing as dry, intense sunshine in West Africa stresses crops and fuels pest concerns, limiting global supply.
- Saudi Price Cuts: Amidst the global surplus, Saudi Aramco slashed its official selling price (OSP) to Asia to its lowest level since 2021, signaling a fight for market share in a cooling global economy.
What’s Next?
We are witnessing a fascinating “Risk-On / Risk-Off” split. While industrial metals like Copper are behaving like high-growth tech stocks due to the green energy transition and tariff wars, the energy sector is paralyzed by “The Venezuela Factor.”
