04/09/2026 – Daily Reports
Daily Market Highlights
- Fed expectations are back in focus. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support keeping rates unchanged this month if upcoming data confirms continued disinflation. Markets have reduced the probability of a September rate hike from around 63% to 50%.
- Global equities are recovering, while markets are focused on today’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Economists expect 56K new jobs in August and unemployment to remain at 4.1%. A weaker report could further reduce rate-hike expectations and support gold.
- Oil remains elevated due to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent is around $95.7 and WTI around $91.6, with both contracts heading for their strongest weekly gains since July.
- Gold rose around 2% following Waller’s dovish comments and is trading near $4,470 ahead of the payrolls report. A weak jobs report would likely support gold, while a strong number could strengthen the dollar and pressure precious metals.
- Main focus today: 🇺🇸 NFP → Fed rate expectations → Dollar/U.S. yields → Gold and equities.
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Global Market Briefing — 4 September 2026
- The Nasdaq Composite closed 1.4% higher at 29504 on Thursday, after Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated a rate hike would not be warranted if underlying inflation keeps slowing, a shift from his earlier remarks flagging inflation risks. Swaps moved to roughly even odds on a quarter-point September hike, down from about 70% earlier in the week, and the dollar fell to its lowest since May. Hewlett Packard Enterprise dropped 4% after missing expectations. Nasdaq-100 futures were 0.17% higher early Friday ahead of the August payrolls report, forecast at 56K after a 23K contraction, with unemployment seen unchanged at 4.1%.
- DAX closed higher on Thursday, Volkswagen led gains at +3.61% to €76.36, while Fresenius Medical Care (-1.93%) and Rheinmetall (-1.85%) lagged. German private-sector growth accelerated on the day’s data. The index had hit one-month lows earlier in the week, and Volkswagen will be removed from the Euro Stoxx 50 on 21 September.
- The Nikkei futures closed Thursday to 64620 while the Topix gained 0.5% to 4,102 The yen strengthened around 1% to a one-month high of 156.34 per dollar, amid speculation authorities had conducted a rate check ahead of possible intervention. BoJ board member Hajime Takata argued for more nimble, data-dependent tightening; OIS pricing implies roughly 84% odds of a September BoJ hike. The index opened Friday 0.74% higher.
- Spot gold jumped more than 2% Thursday to $4472 an ounce, Waller’s comments, a weak ADP private payrolls print and the yen surge were cited as drivers. The metal remains well below its 28 January record of $5,589
- Brent traded near $95 on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally as markets assessed renewed Middle East hostilities and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said the latest strikes on Iran would be short-lived. Shipments through the strait continued at roughly 8 million barrels a day, and US crude inventories fell 4.5 million barrels last week — the first decline since late July.
