GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW

The key themes for the new day will be controlled risk appetite on the U.S.-China front, renewed energy risks surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and elevated bond yields.

The most important development over the weekend was Trump’s rejection of Iran’s seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran stated on Sunday that it still believed a diplomatic solution was possible. This could reverse some of Friday’s optimism over oil prices at Monday’s market open.

28 September 2026 GLOBAL MARKETS OUTLOOK

1. U.S. MARKETS — Cautiously Negative / High Volatility

U.S. markets ended the week relatively resiliently on 25 September:

• S&P 500: Around 7,704 early in Friday’s session, reaching approximately 7,743 based on weekly closing data.
• Nasdaq: Above 27,000.
• Dow Jones: Around 51,350.
• 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: Around 5.18%.
• Dollar Index: Around 101.
• WTI: Around $92.40.
• Gold: Around $4,320–$4,335.

Despite elevated Treasury yields, Nasdaq remained resilient on Friday, showing that the AI and technology theme remains strong. However, the 10-year yield around 5.18% continues to be a significant source of pressure.

For 28 September, oil is the key variable.

Oil ↑ + Treasury yields ↑ → Pressure on Nasdaq

If oil remains below $100 and U.S. Treasury yields stay below 5.20%, buying interest in technology stocks could continue.

U.S. MARKET SCENARIO

S&P 500 — 🟡 Sideways / Slightly Negative
Nasdaq — 🟡 More Sensitive / Volatile
Dow Jones — 🟡 Relatively Resilient
Small Caps — 🔴 More Vulnerable
Technology / AI — 🟢 Positive but Risky Due to High Yields
Energy — 🟢 Strong if Oil Rises
Defense — 🟢 Supported by Geopolitical Risks

2. U.S.-CHINA DEVELOPMENTS — A Positive Factor

Following the Trump-Xi meeting, both sides signaled strategic stability and efforts to keep trade tensions under control.

The U.S. and China were reported to have agreed on tariff reductions affecting around $30 billion worth of goods and to establish a communication channel on artificial intelligence.

For markets:

U.S.-China trade tensions ↓
→ Global trade risk ↓
→ Chinese/Asian equities ↑
→ Technology/semiconductors ↑
→ Global risk appetite ↑

However, this is not yet a permanent U.S.-China trade agreement.

Issues including AI, advanced technology chips, Taiwan and China’s relations with Iran remain unresolved. Therefore, markets are unlikely to price this as a complete trade peace.

China — Positive Factors

• Lower trade tensions
• AI communication channel
• Reduced short-term tariff pressure from the U.S.
• Support for Chinese technology stocks

China — Negative Factors

• Iran/Hormuz crisis remains important for China’s energy imports
• Higher oil prices would increase costs for the Chinese economy
• U.S. restrictions on advanced technology and chips remain

Therefore, Chinese technology and semiconductor stocks could outperform during the Asian session on 28 September.

3. OIL — KEY INDICATOR FOR MONDAY

Oil will be the number-one variable for global markets on 28 September.

WTI closed around $92.40 on 25 September, supported by expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen and hopes for diplomacy.

However, Trump’s rejection of Iran’s seven-day Hormuz proposal over the weekend weakened those expectations.

Scenario 1 — Diplomacy Strengthens

WTI: $92 → $90 → $88
Brent: Below $100 could come into focus.

Potential market impact:

Nasdaq ↑
S&P 500 ↑
European equities ↑
China/Asia ↑
Treasury yields ↓
Gold remains pressured by yields

Scenario 2 — Hormuz Risk Is Repriced

WTI: $95 → $98 → $100+
Brent: $105 → $110

Potential market impact:

Nasdaq ↓
S&P 500 ↓
Europe ↓
Airlines ↓
Industrials ↓
Energy ↑
Defense ↑
Dollar ↑
Inflation expectations ↑
Treasury yields ↑

The main scenario for 28 September is a milder version of Scenario 2: oil could rebound from Friday’s levels, although a sustained move toward $100–$110 would likely require a clearer physical supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

4. BOND MARKET — THE HIDDEN GLOBAL MARKETS RISK

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is around 5.18%, a significant level for equity valuations.

Markets are currently dealing with:

High oil prices + higher inflation risks + elevated Treasury yields + expectations of tighter Fed policy.

Therefore, the AI narrative alone may not be enough to drive U.S. equities to new highs.

Key Levels

10-year yield above 5.20%:
🔴 Nasdaq pressure
🔴 S&P 500 pressure
🔴 Growth stocks pressure
🟢 Banks relatively supported

10-year yield below 5.10%:
🟢 Nasdaq
🟢 S&P 500
🟢 Technology
🟢 AI stocks could see relief

The 10-year Treasury yield should therefore be monitored as closely as oil on 28 September.

5. GOLD

Gold traded around $4,320 on Friday. Higher U.S. yields and a stronger dollar pressured the metal throughout the week.

Two forces are currently competing:

Geopolitical risk ↑ → Gold ↑

U.S. Treasury yields ↑ + Dollar ↑ → Gold ↓

Therefore, oil developments could influence gold’s direction on 28 September.

Short-term levels:

$4,300–$4,320: Key support
$4,350–$4,380: First recovery zone
$4,400–$4,450: Stronger recovery zone

If Hormuz tensions increase, $4,400+ could come back into focus.

However, if the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5.20%, gold’s upside could remain limited.

6. DOLLAR

DXY is around 101.

If oil rises and the Fed maintains a more hawkish stance, the dollar could remain supported.

Key chain:

Oil ↑
→ Inflation ↑
→ Rate-cut expectations ↓
→ Treasury yields ↑
→ Dollar ↑

The DXY 101–102 area should therefore be closely monitored on 28 September.

A move above 102 could be negative for emerging-market currencies.

7. EUROPE

European markets remain somewhat more sensitive than the U.S.

Europe is particularly exposed to:

• Energy prices
• Oil and natural gas costs
• Geopolitical developments

Higher oil prices could increase costs for European companies.

Potentially vulnerable sectors:

🔴 Automobiles
🔴 Airlines
🔴 Chemicals
🔴 Consumer
🔴 Energy-intensive industries

Potentially supported:

🟢 Energy
🟢 Defense
🟢 Selected banks

For the euro, higher energy prices could negatively affect Europe’s trade balance and inflation outlook.

ASIA

Asia faces two opposing forces.

Positive:

U.S.-China trade / AI developments
→ Chinese technology
→ Hong Kong
→ Korean semiconductors
→ Taiwan technology

Negative:

Hormuz + higher oil
→ China
→ Japan
→ South Korea
→ India

Therefore, Asia may see selective gains rather than a broad risk-on move on Monday.

28 SEPTEMBER GLOBAL MARKETS SUMMARY

S&P 500 — 🟡 5.5/10
Nasdaq — 🟡 5/10
Dow Jones — 🟡 5.5/10
China — 🟢 6.5/10
Japan — 🟡 5/10
South Korea — 🟢 6.5/10
Europe — 🟡 4.5/10
Oil — 🟢 6.5/10
Gold — 🟡 6/10
Dollar — 🟢 6.5/10
Bitcoin — 🟡 4.5/10
U.S. Treasuries — 🔴 4/10

5 KEY INDICATORS FOR 28 SEPTEMBER

1️⃣ Brent Oil

Below $100 → Risk remains manageable.
$105+ → Significant warning for global equities.

2️⃣ WTI

Sustained above $92 → Upside risk.
Below $90 → Relief for equities.

3️⃣ U.S. 10-Year Treasury

Above 5.20% → Warning for technology.
Below 5.10% → Positive for risk appetite.

4️⃣ DXY

Strength above 101 → Negative for emerging markets.

5️⃣ Nasdaq / S&P 500

If indices remain resilient despite higher yields and oil prices, it would indicate that market strength remains intact.

28 SEPTEMBER MAIN SCENARIO

28 September is not viewed as a full risk-off day.

The more appropriate description is:

🟡 Selective risk-taking + high volatility + oil-related pressure

U.S.-China developments are supporting global risk appetite, while the AI and technology theme remains strong. However, the negative developments surrounding Hormuz over the weekend could make it harder for Friday’s oil decline to continue.

This week also includes U.S. September employment data, Eurozone inflation and China PMI, which could reshape expectations for the Fed and global growth.

Key themes:

U.S.-China developments = 🟢
AI / Technology = 🟢
Hormuz / Iran = 🔴
Oil = 🟠 Upside Risk
Treasury Yields = 🔴
Dollar = 🟢
Gold = 🟡
Global Equities = 🟡 Selective and Volatile

In summary, the direction of global markets on 28 September will depend less on the Trump-Xi meeting and more on how much the deterioration in Iran-Hormuz diplomacy is reflected in oil prices.

2. GLOBAL MARKETS COMMODITY ANALYSIS

The main theme for global commodity markets on 28 September 2026 is: geopolitical risk premium in oil is easing; dollar and Treasury yield pressure remains on precious metals; and agricultural commodities continue to diverge by product.

OIL AND NATURAL GAS

The short-term outlook for oil is negative.

The possibility of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the blockade on Iranian ports is reducing the geopolitical risk premium in oil.

If this development materializes:

Higher supply expectations → Downward pressure on oil → Pressure on energy stocks

However, no confirmed agreement has been reached yet. The market is still responding to negotiations and news flow. Therefore, oil could rebound after sharp declines.

Oil — 28 September

Main direction: ↘️ Negative
Pressure factor: Potential reopening of Hormuz / return of Iranian supply
Upside risk: Failed negotiations
Short-term view: Rebound rallies could face selling pressure.

Natural gas is diverging from oil. Friday’s decline is currently viewed as profit-taking following strong demand expectations. As long as the demand outlook remains intact, the outlook for natural gas is less clearly negative than oil.

Natural Gas: ↔️ / Slightly Positive

GOLD AND SILVER

Unlike oil, the main drivers remain the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.

Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar pressured gold and silver throughout the week. Friday’s recovery should currently be viewed as a rebound rather than a major trend reversal.

GOLD

Positive:

• Geopolitical risks
• Central-bank demand
• Potential rate-cut expectations

Negative:

• Stronger dollar
• Higher Treasury yields
• More hawkish Fed outlook

Gold: ↔️ Neutral / Slightly Negative

However, if the dollar and Treasury yields begin to ease, gold could strengthen quickly.

SILVER

Silver is more volatile than gold.

Because of its industrial demand, growth expectations are important. A stronger dollar could therefore create more significant pressure on silver.

Silver: ↔️ / Slightly Negative

If the dollar weakens, silver could potentially rebound faster than gold.

COPPER

Interest rates and the dollar remain headwinds for copper.

The lack of concrete economic or trade results from the U.S.-China talks also failed to provide a strong catalyst.

Copper: ↔️ Sideways / Slightly Negative

However, stronger Chinese stimulus or a clear improvement in manufacturing data could push copper higher again.

PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM

PLATINUM

Platinum has recently been pressured by rate expectations, although its intraday recovery is notable.

Lower oil prices could also provide some cost-side support.

Platinum: ↔️ Neutral

There is rebound potential following the pressure seen after 16 September, but a stronger dollar remains a key risk.

PALLADIUM

The outlook is weaker.

Key pressures:

Weak automotive demand + Stronger dollar + Interest-rate pressure

Palladium: 🔴 Negative

ALUMINUM

There is currently no strong directional signal for aluminum.

China’s economy, energy costs and global industrial activity remain key drivers.

Aluminum: ↔️ Sideways

A relatively calm performance compared with other metals is expected on 28 September.

AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

The key point is that agricultural commodities are not moving in one direction.

SOYBEANS

The lack of concrete results from U.S.-China talks is a short-term negative.

However, continued Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans remain an important support.

Soybeans: ↔️ Neutral / Slightly Negative

Profit-taking could continue, but Chinese demand may limit the downside.

WHEAT

The lack of concrete results from U.S.-China talks is negative for wheat.

However, wheat is also influenced by Russia-Ukraine supply, weather conditions and global inventories.

Wheat: 🔴 Slightly Negative

COFFEE

Improved expectations for Brazilian production and shipments have pressured prices.

However, the recovery attempt following the sell-off is notable.

Coffee: ↔️ Neutral / Rebound Potential

Weather conditions could once again become a key price driver.

COTTON

Oil price volatility and the supply-demand balance continue to shape the outlook for cotton.

Cotton: 🔴 Slightly Negative / Sideways

Without a strong catalyst, a sideways-to-weak performance is more likely.

SUGAR

Sugar is outperforming other agricultural commodities.

Supply concerns are supporting prices.

Sugar: 🟢 Positive

Sugar remains one of the key agricultural commodities to watch on 28 September.

COCOA

Drought expectations in Ivory Coast remain important.

Weather conditions can have a significant impact on cocoa supply.

Cocoa: 🟢 Positive

However, changes in weather forecasts could trigger high volatility.

CORN

Weak U.S. export demand is weighing on prices.

Corn: 🔴 Negative

Corn is among the weakest agricultural commodities for 28 September.

28 SEPTEMBER 2026 GLOBAL COMMODITIES SUMMARY

Oil — 🔴 Negative — Iran / Hormuz developments
Natural Gas — 🟢 / ↔️ — Strong demand
Gold — ↔️ / 🔴 — Dollar + Treasury yields
Silver — ↔️ / 🔴 — Dollar + rates
Copper — ↔️ — China + rates + dollar
Platinum — ↔️ — Rate pressure / rebound potential
Palladium — 🔴 — Weak demand
Aluminum — ↔️ — Balanced outlook
Soybeans — ↔️ / 🔴 — China talks
Wheat — 🔴 — Trade negotiations
Coffee — ↔️ — Brazilian supply
Cotton — 🔴 / ↔️ — Supply-demand balance
Sugar — 🟢 — Supply concerns
Cocoa — 🟢 — Drought risk
Corn — 🔴 — Weak U.S. exports

3 KEY INDICATORS FOR 28 SEPTEMBER

1. Oil: Iran-U.S. / Hormuz developments

2. Gold: U.S. Treasury yields + Dollar Index

3. Copper: Chinese economy + U.S.-China trade talks

Overall:

Most Positive: 🟢 Sugar → Cocoa → Natural Gas

Neutral: Copper → Platinum → Aluminum → Coffee

Weakest: 🔴 Oil → Palladium → Corn → Wheat

The key risk combination for global commodity markets on 28 September is the simultaneous easing of geopolitical risk in oil and rising dollar / Treasury yields.