31/08/2026 – Daily Reports
- Global markets started the week under pressure as U.S.-Iran tensions and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy remained the main focus. U.S. strikes and Iran’s retaliation pushed Brent crude above $90, while Asian equities declined.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at Jackson Hole increased expectations of a September rate hike. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar are putting pressure on technology stocks.
- Gold declined as the dollar and Treasury yields strengthened, although geopolitical risks continue to provide some safe-haven support. Markets are now focused on this week’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further clues on Fed policy.
- U.S. equities remain cautious as the positive impact of Nvidia’s earnings is being offset by rising rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainty.
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Global Market News Summary — Monday, 31 August 2026
- The Nasdaq futures closed Friday down 0.52% at 29512, weighed down by semiconductor names including Nvidia and Intel, after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address. Warsh noted 12-month PCE inflation at 3.7% and the six-month rate at 4.1%; September rate-hike odds rose to 55.7% from 35.4% the prior day on CME FedWatch. Nasdaq-100 futures were down 0.4% early Monday after the US struck Iranian rocket launchers at Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz; the index is up about 4% for August.
- The DAX futures rose 0.8% on Friday to a record close of 26592 , led by autos as traders assessed Warsh’s remarks. BMW gained 4.50%, Volkswagen 3.23% and Mercedes-Benz 2.96%, while Rheinmetall fell 1.85%. The index gained 3.74% over the month. Germany’s August HICP flash estimate is released today; July HICP inflation was 2.8%, with core at 2.6%.
- The Nikkei 225 futures fell 1.97% to 64600 in early Monday trade and the Topix declined 0.84% to 4,111, with technology shares leading losses — Advantest fell around 7%, alongside declines in Tokyo Electron and SoftBank Group — amid expectations of higher rates in Japan and the US, a weaker yen and rising JGB yields. Friday’s close was 66,405.56, up 0.41%; July unemployment fell to 2.4% and Tokyo inflation accelerated to a five-month high in August.
- Spot gold fell roughly 3% on Friday to around $4,450 an ounce following Warsh’s speech and extended losses on Monday, dropping to a one-and-a-half-week low during Asian hours. The move interrupted an August rally of more than 13%, the metal’s strongest monthly performance this century.
- Brent for November rose above $90,97 a barrel after US forces struck Iranian rocket launchers preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, ending weeks of relative calm. Brent had settled near $88,20 on Friday, down over 5% on the week, with Goldman Sachs estimating Persian Gulf exports at 15–16 million bpd against 22–24 million pre-conflict.
Oil, Inflation and Rates Put Global Markets Under Pressure
- Oil jumps more than 3% as the U.S. and Iran resume military attacks in the Gulf. Brent crude rises above $92, reviving fears of renewed energy-driven inflation.
- Bond yields surge globally: Japan’s 2-year yield hits a 31-year high, while German and French 2-year yields reach their highest levels since 2024.
- Fed rate-hike bets strengthen: Markets now price around a 60% probability of a September Fed hike, up from just under 50% last week.
- Warsh turns more hawkish: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech has strengthened expectations that the Fed may move sooner to combat persistent inflation.
- ECB also in focus: Euro-area longer-term yields climb to their highest levels in more than 15 years, while markets increasingly expect an ECB hike on September 9-10.
- Yen remains under pressure: USD/JPY trades around 159.74, with the yen again approaching the critical 160 per dollar level.
- Bessent says yen weakness remains contained, reducing immediate expectations of another coordinated Japan-U.S. intervention.
- Treasury yields remain elevated: The U.S. 2-year yield holds around 4.34%, while the 30-year yield remains near 5.20%.
- Gold remains resilient: Gold trades around $4,451/oz and is up roughly 10% in August, putting it on track for its strongest monthly gain since January.
What’s Next?
- If the geopolitical escalation keeps oil above $90, central banks could find it much harder to ease policy. That creates a particularly challenging environment for bonds and rate-sensitive equities, while keeping the dollar and gold supported.
