Oil remains surprisingly calm despite ongoing US-Iran tensions.
• Brent is still unable to sustainably break above $100/bbl.
• Markets appear to be pricing in a significant probability of a diplomatic breakthrough.
• Global inventories have fallen by roughly 32 million barrels over the past six weeks, keeping upside risks for oil prices firmly intact.

USD remains supported by a strong macro backdrop.
• Hawkish Fed repricing continues to favor the dollar.
• Today’s US Non-Farm Payrolls report is the main event.
• ING expects payroll growth of 100k versus the 88k consensus estimate.
• Unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

A stronger-than-expected jobs report could:
• Push markets closer to pricing a full Fed rate hike this year.
• Trigger another leg higher in US Treasury yields.
• Provide fresh upside momentum for the US dollar.

EUR/USD remains under pressure.
• The pair continues to trade within the 1.1600–1.1650 range.
• Interest rate differentials have become a more important driver than oil prices.
• Unless there is meaningful progress in US-Iran negotiations, downside risks remain dominant.

Canadian dollar faces another critical test.
• Canada releases employment data alongside the US report.
• Markets expect stabilization after weak April labor figures.
• Rising US-Canada rate differentials are supporting USD/CAD.
• Risks of a move toward 1.4000 in USD/CAD remain elevated.

What’s Next?

The market’s biggest puzzle is oil. Considering the ongoing geopolitical risks and tightening inventories, crude prices appear unusually complacent. If negotiations with Iran fail to produce concrete progress, oil could reprice sharply higher, potentially triggering a stronger inflation narrative, higher Treasury yields, and renewed USD strength. For now, today’s US payrolls report is likely the next major catalyst that